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Maple Leafs vs Jets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NHL

Published

9m ago

Jan 27, 2024 / 326 Views

Evan Walker

We’ve got 14 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an all-Canadian matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets.

It’s the second meeting between these two in three nights. Toronto took the first game in its barn on Wednesday, but the NHL odds like Winnipeg tonight and I also believe in the home side in what should be a fairly low-scoring affair.

Find out why in my free NHL picks for the Maple Leafs vs Jets on January 27.

Maple Leafs vs Jets odds

Maple Leafs vs Jets predictions

Part two of the home-and-home commences Saturday night when the Toronto Maple Leafs head to Manitoba to take on the Winnipeg Jets.

The Maple Leafs came away with the victory when these two squads battled Wednesday night in Toronto. It was quite the goaltending duel between Ilya Samsonov and Laurent Brossoit, as both goalies pitched a shutout through regulation before Auston Matthews found the back of the net in overtime.

I’m not quite sold Samsonov will have another shutout performance given his track record this season, but I am comfortable betting on the Jets putting together another solid defensive effort. Winnipeg held Toronto to just eight scoring chances at 5-on-5, with only two being considered high-danger, resulting in 1.02 expected goals.

Hence, my best bet for tonight is for the Maple Leafs to go Under their team total of 2.5 goals.

The Jets took away time and space from Toronto and forced it to play on its own end most of the night. Winnipeg has been the stingiest defensive team in hockey all season long and has allowed two or fewer goals in all but one Game since returning from the Christmas break — resulting in an impressive 1.65 goals against average over that span.

Additionally, Connor Hellebuyck got the night off on Wednesday, but the Vezina frontrunner will be between the pipes tonight, sporting a league-best 2.17 GAA and a .925 SV% — with an even better 1.70 GAA since Christmas.

So goal scoring won't be easy for Toronto tonight. Which is problematic since pretty well everyone else not named Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, or William Nylander is marred in some kind of scoring slump.

As a group, the team is averaging just 2.71 goals per game over the last seven outings and has seen the power play go dry with just one goal on the man advantage over that stretch. Considering the Jets PK is red-hot right now, killing off 90% of their penalties since the New Year, tonight doesn’t feel like the night the Leafs' PP woes end.

My best bet: Maple Leafs team total Under 2.5 (-110 at SIA)

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Maple Leafs vs Jets same-game parlay

Maple Leafs team total Under 2.5

Jets moneyline

First period Under 1.5

+310 at Sports Interaction

I like the Jets to get revenge and win the game on home ice with a moneyline play. They were the better team on Wednesday, and that was without Hellebuyck. Getting Gabe Vilardi and Josh Morrissey back should also give them a boost. Plus, Winnipeg is 16-8 at MTS Centre this season, giving up an average of just 2.33 gpg. It’d take another monster performance from Samsonov to compete with those numbers, and I’m not convinced he’s completely back yet.

For my final leg, let’s roll with Under 1.5 goals in the first period. These teams needed 64+ minutes to register the first goal of the game. I’d imagine we’ll see the first one come much sooner than that tonight, but a high-scoring first period shouldn’t be expected. Both the Leafs and Jets’ lowest scoring period all season long has been the opening frame.

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Maple Leafs vs Jets moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs come into tonight as the underdog — getting +105 odds — with the Jets entering as the home favorites at -130. The odds have essentially flipped from Wednesday’s bout, with the Jets getting the home-ice edge this time around. It’s also deserved, considering Winnipeg was the better team. According to Natural Stat Trick, Winnipeg won 68% of the minutes at 5-on-5 despite the loss.

Plus, the Leafs will be without Bobby McMann and Calle Jarnkrok to injuries, meaning Ryan Reaves could enter the lineup. He’s got a GA/60 north of five this year... not Bueno.

The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 6.0 goals, shading slightly toward the Over at -115, as the the Under is getting -105 odds. The Under is 13-6-1 between both of these clubs over their last 10 games each. Considering Wednesday ended with a 1-0 score, I wouldn’t expect a goals bonanza tonight either. I’d buy the hook, though, and take Under 6.5 to avoid the push if it ends up being a six-goal game.