Knicks vs Celtics Predictions, Picks & Odds - 4-11-2024

The Boston Celtics haven't had a truly meaningful basketball game to play in almost a month, but they'll want to ensure they stay in peak form for the playoffs — especially tonight, Thursday April 11, against a possible second-round opponent, the New York Knicks.

While the Knicks received the bummer news last week Julius Randle won't be returning this season, not all hope is lost for a team that's remained competitive for months despite a litany of key injuries. And part of that hope are two former Villanova teammates we're targeting tonight. 

Check out out our free NBA picks in our Knicks vs. Celtics predictions for tonight's showdown.

Knicks vs Celtics predictions

My best bets

• Donte DiVincenzo Over 4.5 threes made (+132 at BetRivers)
  
  
• Josh Hart Over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105 +142 at BetMGM) 50% boost available

Best odds available in your region

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My analysis
Boston's defensive philosophy tonight will center around pestering Jalen Brunson, who's gone from being merely very good to an absolute f***ing monster for the New York Knicks down the stretch.

Effectively averaging 35 points and 10 assists this month, Brunson's been a heliocentric force for a Knicks squad that drags the pace to a crawl, plays great defense, and lets their fringe MVP candidate pick apart opposing defenses within slimmer margins.

The Boston Celtics are uniquely qualified to blitz Brunson, armed with arguably the best defensive duo of point guards in modern NBA history. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday (the latter listed as questionable tonight) will make life difficult for Brunson, and likely play into the hands of his backcourt mate in the process.

See, the Celtics have a clear onus on defense: prevent shots at the rim, and, more relevant to our case here, corner threes. As a byproduct of this, they bleed looks from above the break (the second-most in the NBA), where Donte DiVincenzo is going to get plenty of opportunity to cash his Over 4.5 threes made prop tonight.

The Big Ragu is still gunning unapologetically, attempting over 11 threes per game since the start of March, and hitting at a 47.1% rate in April. If the attempts are there, he should convert them at a solid clip, especially if the Knicks are able to run action for him on the right wing, where he's hitting 45% of threes this season.

DiVincenzo attempted just eight threes in his last game against Boston (February 24), playing only 32 minutes (which he hasn't seen that few of in three weeks), still hitting four. That game was played at a frozen-molasses 83.5 pace — for reference, the Knicks, the NBA's slowest team, play at a 96.0 pace — so it can't possibly get slower, even if tonight's game takes on a playoff-type mindset.

New York is desperate for a win to keep itself in the 3-seed and avoid a second-round matchup with the Celtics, so it'll be supremely motivated, and notorious minute-drainer Tom Thibodeau will likely max out his best players' playing time tonight.

Conversely, while I'm not saying the Celtics have checked out, they did just get blown out by the Bucks, who, for argument's sake, lost to three G-League teams (and the Knicks) last week. To boot, their whole starting lineup is questionable tonight, so we could see multiple holes in a defensive phalanx.

When you extrapolate DiVincenzo's increased volume since that last Boston game, across what should be maximum minutes with a clear Celtics onus to get the ball out of Brunson's hands and concede looks our target can feed off of, I'm a big fan of these NBA odds at plus money. 

We're also rolling with Josh Hart to topple his 25.5 PRA total, which is about what he's averaging for the month despite his rebounding numbers being generally down (he's a consistent glass-crasher; this won't last).

That number is further depressed by an injury outlier on April 5, when Hart played just 11 minutes against the Bulls, putting up a stunning 0/1/1 line. Seeing a normal Thibs workload last time out, also against the Bulls: 17/13/7. In a pivotal game where we'll see max minutes and effort from Hart, backing him to stuff the box score is a safe move. 

Knicks vs Celtics same-game parlay

With both our DiVincenzo and Hart picks slotted in here, the SGP more or less builds itself.

In addition to my best bets, let's double down on DiVincenzo to top 17.5 points. Yes, it's a very high correlation, but there's almost no universe in which Ragu hits five-plus 3-pointers and doesn't score 18 points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Knicks vs Celtics odds

Knicks vs Celtics live odds

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Knicks vs Celtics opening odds

• Spread: New York -1.5 (+105) | Boston +1.5
• Moneyline: New York -110 | Boston -110
• Over/Under: Over 213.5 (-110) | Under 213.5 (-110)

Knicks vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis

• Both sides are favorable ATS bets this season, with the Knicks at 42-34-3 and the Celtics going 40-35-4.
  
  
• Boston's entire ATS profit margin comes at home, going 21-16-1.
  
  
• New York is just 34-45 O/U on the season.
  
  
• Despite this, the Knicks are on a tear of Overs, at 8-1 in their last nine games, and 10-2 across the last 12. The Celtics mirror that trend at 8-3 to the Over in their last 11. 

Knicks vs Celtics trend

Knicks are 10-2 to the Over in their last 12 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Celtics.

Knicks vs Celtics game info

Knicks vs Celtics latest injuries