The Kansas City Royals (75-59) and Houston Astros (71-62) meet Thursday as they swing into a 4-game series. First pitch from Minute Maid Park will be at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 3-0
The on-a-roll Royals are coming off a big 4-Game set at the Cleveland Guardians. Kansas City took 3 of those Games, is 10-4 since Aug. 14 and is now just 1 Game behind Cleveland in the race for the AL Central flag.
Houston is back at home after a 3-4 road trip with stops in Baltimore and Philadelphia. The Astros went 11-1 from Aug. 6-19 but are just 3-6 since. Those last 9 Games have seen the club lose a trio of 1-run Games.
Royals at Astros projected starters
RHP Brady Singer vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Singer (9-9, 3.38 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has authored a 1.25 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 146 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 11 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 11-2 home defeat vs. Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- Career vs. Astros: 1-2, 4.57 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 4 starts
- Has allowed 6.23 ERA on .885 OPS over his last 4 starts
Brown (11-7, 3.72 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 140 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-5 setback at Baltimore Orioles Friday
- Career vs. Royals: 0-2, 36.82 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 17 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 2 starts
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Royals at Astros odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Royals +132 (bet $100 to win $132) | Astros -156 (bet $156 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-162) | Astros -1.5 (+134)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -104 | U: -118)
Royals at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Royals 3
Moneyline
On an overall team basis, peg the upstart Royals as now being a few Games too far over their skis with a .560 winning percentage. Figure the Astros as swinging slightly the other direction. They have underplayed their 4.56 runs per Game (RPG) and 3.98 RPG allowed.
Though perhaps to a lesser degree, the assessment of the starters in this one matches the team framework.
Houston has not played great at home of late (7-8 in last 15) and Brown is making this start after logging a season-high 107 pitches in his last. But the Astros are the value side.
BET HOUSTON (-156).
Run line/Against the spread
Figure better value on the ML for this one. PASS.
Over/Under
The total has gone Under in 6 of Houston’s last 9 games at home.
There is a significant fade to the Royals’ offensive numbers. Their 4.88 RPG are not fully supported by analytics. In a solid pitching matchup, TAKE THE UNDER 8 (-118).
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