Iran attacks Israel in dramatic display of capability. “Our attack is over”. Is enough, enough?

With 99.9% of drones and missiles intercepted, mostly outside of Israel air space, the shock and awe of what many feared was the beginning of World War III in the mid-east, seems to be the retaliation promised by Iran to Israel for its attack on their embassy in Damascus. And it may be a show for the world of the capabilities of Iran. But just as the amazing show of power, there is no doubt they knew about the planned ineffectiveness of any sort of mass destruction. Iran simply knew Israel – with the US by its side – could deflect most anything thrown at it.

Israel, the US and its allies, were confident in their deflection capabilities. Iran knew the attacks would be targeted more for demonstration’s purposes than destruction. It was fulfilling their promise to “retaliate”. It terrorized all watching on “X”. Is this the beginning of another endless cycle of violence? Are thoughts of mediation, ceasefire, hostage resolution, and continued elimination of Hamas still in play? Will Israel move into Rafah this week – a promise still very much on the table. Will Hamas show their hand – a terrible possibility – that the hostages are no longer alive – and therefore they have no bargaining ability?

As the sun rises in the mid-east, airspace has opened up again in the region. Cafes are open in Jerusalem and people are in the streets once again. Reporters are taking a few hours to rest. Thoughts, for the moment, that we just entered WWIII have abated, if even momentarily, and official statements begin.

From Iran’s Chief of Staff: “Our attack is over, and we do not wish to continue it, but we will respond forcefully if Israel targets our interests. Israel crossed red lines by targeting our consulate in Damascus, and it had to be responded to.” Inside Tehran, celebrations in the street after pseudo-attacks on Israel, unclear if the gatherings are government organized. Iran goes further to warn the US if there is any participation in any retaliation, they will target US bases.

From Israel: It’s been a long night/morning but one thing is clear. We are strong, resilient and we will never give in to terror. Those who harm the people of Israel will pay the price. From the PM: “The rejection of the proposal by the three mediators, which included the most significant flexibility on Israel’s part, proves that Sinwar does not want a humanitarian deal and the return of the hostages, is continuing to exploit the tension with Iran, and is striving to unite the sectors and achieve a general escalation in the region. Israel will continue to strive to realize the objectives of the war with Hamas with full force, and leave no stone unturned to return the 133 hostages from Gaza forthwith”.

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From the US, President Biden: While saying the US will stalwartly stand with Israel in its defense, it has said it will not participate in any responsive, outward strike on another country. The President’s statement:

Earlier today, Iran—and its proxies operating out of Yemen, Syria and Iraq—launched an unprecedented air attack against military facilities in Israel. I condemn these attacks in the strongest possible terms.

At my direction, to support the defense of Israel, the U.S. military moved aircraft and ballistic missile defense destroyers to the region over the course of the past week.  Thanks to these deployments and the extraordinary skill of our service members, we helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles. 

I’ve just spoken with Prime Minister Netanyahu to reaffirm America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel.  I told him that Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks – sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel.

Tomorrow, I will convene my fellow G7 leaders to coordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran’s brazen attack.  My team will engage with their counterparts across the region.  And we will stay in close touch with Israel’s leaders.  And while we have not seen attacks on our forces or facilities today, we will remain vigilant to all threats and will not hesitate to take all necessary action to protect our people.”

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The potential for a massive regional coNFLict remains. The potential for WWIII remains. Diplomatic activity will begin in earnest, but recognize that only half of the countries involved may be motivated to negotiate. Half may be dedicated to escalation. The governments of Qatar, Germany, and China have all begun issuing statements calling for calm and a ratcheting back.

The world awaits the next move in this deadly situation for the world.