The Houston Astros (81-68) and San Diego Padres (85-65) meet Monday as they swing into a 3-game set. First pitch from Petco Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Astros vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Houston won 2-1 in 2023
Houston is continuing a road swing that opened with the club sweeping a 3-game series from the Los Angeles Angels Friday-Sunday. Overall, the Astros have won 4 straight games and 11 of their last 17.
The Padres are back at home after a 4-1 road trip. That short spell away from home concluded with the Friars taking 3 of 3 from the San Francisco Giants over the weekend.
Astros at Padres projected starters
RHP Spencer Arrighetti vs. RHP Yu Darvish
Arrighetti (7-12, 4.72 ERA) is making his 27th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 131 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-3 home loss vs. Oakland A’s Tuesday
- Has held opposing batters to .679 OPS while logging 3.31 ERA in 2nd half of season
- Has never faced Padres
Darvish (5-3, 3.52 ERA) is tabbed for his 14th start. He owns a 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 64 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 7-3 win at Seattle Mariners Tuesday
- Career vs. Astros (regular season): 5-5, 3.64 ERA (94 IP, 38 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 15 starts
- Making his 3rd start since returning from IL stint (elbow) Sept. 4
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Astros at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-210) | Padres -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Astros at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Padres 3
Moneyline
HOUSTON (+105) is 14-4 over its last 18 Games against the NL West.
The Astros have inexplicably gone just 15-26 in 1-run games and 5-10 in extra-inning contests. They have underplayed their 4.63 runs per game and 4.00 RPG allowed and should be a lean in few games down the stretch.
That lean gets pushed out with this mound matchup. Arrighetti has been quite good. He has the look of a 27-year-old putting things together, and he owns a tidy 3.06 ERA over his last 6 road starts. His rest interval fits as a green check mark also. Arrighetti has scuffled with long rest and on 4-day rest. His 5-day (applicable for this start) interval figures: 3.58 ERA with 3.3 K/BB.
San Diego is just 5-6 over its last 11 games at home. Peg the ASTROS (+105) as the value play.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS on bringing all the juice into play on this RL offering.
Over/Under
The Under has cashed in 6 of Houston’s last 9 games and in 11 of the club’s last 16 on the road.
Arrighetti’s prognosis applies some downward pressure here. Add in a cool-weather evening and 2 first-division bullpens. TAKE THE UNDER 8 (-115).
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