Greece vs Canada Odds, Picks & Predictions – Olympic Men's Basketball

When the projected worst team in the bracket is headlined by two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, you're looking at the Group of Death. 

Both Canada and Greece will face fierce comPetition to advance out of Group A as they make long-awaited returns to Olympic Men’s Basketball, with Canada last comPeting in 2000 and Greece in 2008.

My Greece vs. Canada predictions dive deep into why I believe Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is set for success on July 27.

Greece vs Canada prediction

My best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 21.5 points (-110)

My analysis
There's a realistic chance Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the best tournament of any player in the field. Given he’s going against the likes of multi-time MVPs like Nikola Jokic, LeBron James —and in this game Giannis Antetokounmpo — that’s a testament to just how much he's grown over the last few years.

Shai’s game is also more FIBA-proof than some other stars. There’s a perception it’s hard to draw fouls in FIBA basketball, but that doesn’t hold true for everyone. 

Shai averaged 8.9 free throws a game at the FIBA World Cup last year and shot 63.1% on twos to total 24.5 points per game. That number would have been higher if not for a blowout win over Lebanon where he barely saw the court, and him wearing down physically in the medal rounds.

Shai is skilled at playing in a phone booth. He can start, shift, and stop in tight spaces against heavy contact without knocking him off his base. His balance is otherworldly, as is his touch from 16 feet and in.

SGA doesn’t need a spread floor to score, but Canada can provide him one by playing shooters at all four spots around him by having Kelly Olynyk and Trey Lyles at the four and five as it did at times in the exhibitions.

Nobody on Greece profiles as an obvious way to stop him. Its guards are on the older (and slower) side and will be expending a ton of energy just holding to the ball against the Canadian defenders.

The athletic edge Canada has over Greece everywhere other than Giannis is striking. Canada has 10 current NBA players, the most in the tournament outside the USA, and two legit star-caliber scorers in SGA and Jamal Murray.  

Murray’s addition as an off-ball player to complement SGA only makes his job easier. Teams can’t throw doubles at him if Murray is lurking one pass away to the same degree they could if that pass is going to a less-gifted shooter like Brooks or R.J. Barrett. 

And if they can’t double Shai, he's going to touch paint and score at will.

Giannis crumbles in Olympic debut

My Giannis Antetokounmpo prop: Under 26.5 points (-115)

Giannis has to play spectacularly for Greece to have a fighting chance. 

The thing to ask is can Greece get Giannis the ball with an advantage? If not, can Canada wall off his drives in the halfcourt and limit him in transition? I think the answers to those questions all point to Antetokounmpo being more limited in this game than his individual matchup would indicate.

The Greek guards are going to have trouble getting him the ball against the kind of pressure Brooks and Dort provide. When Giannis initiates, he’ll be going against a wall. 

There are no defensive three-second violations in FIBA basketball, and the Canadians are going to play Giannis two-on-one as much as they can. Greece has some veteran shooters, but it's not a team that can play five out, and Canada can trust its athletic defenders to help on Giannis and recover without conceding too many open threes to good shooters.

Giannis averaged 22.7 points in the qualifiers against much worse comPetition, and I don’t think he’ll be in a position to do much better against Canada.

Greece vs Canada same-game parlay (SGP)

I was a little surprised to see this line come in at just -7.5 in favor of Canada after the showing it put on in the World Cup and the addition of Jamal Murray to that roster.

The talent gap between these teams is significant. After the first two best players, Canada has the next best five or six, at least. Canada also boasts the best wing defense in the tournament, capable of guarding up or down in size with relentless tenacity. 

Opposing scorers are going from Dort to Brooks to Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Greece’s veteran guards will not have a moment's rest from ball pressure and the Canadians are deep enough at the position they can go all out and play in short stretches.

These players are also all familiar with what it takes to defend Giannis. They might not have been his one-on-one defender for any serious stretch, but unlike some of the Greek comPetition in the qualifying tournament, they’ll know the spots he is and isn’t a threat from and won’t overreact and give away open shots. 

Learn how to bet a same-Game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Greece vs Canada odds

Odds as of 7-26.

Greece vs Canada game info