Germany vs Serbia Odds, Picks & Predictions – Olympic Men’s Basketball Bronze Medal Game

After painful semifinal losses, Germany and Serbia head into Sunday's bronze medal Game for one last shot at finishing on the podium.

This Serbian team was seemingly peaking at the perfect moment before the USA’s stunning late comeback on Thursday, while the Germans’ strong run came to a screeching halt against France.

My Germany vs. Serbia predictions weigh up what should be an offense-heavy showdown.

Germany vs Serbia prediction

My best bet
Serbia moneyline (-120)

My analysis

Serbia put together the perfect Game plan for three quarters against the USA, taking a 13-point lead into the final 10 minutes despite Steph Curry’s fireworks from 3-point range.

Then the wheels came off, as a place in the gold medal game slipped from the Serbians’ grasp. That heartbreak will linger, but I’m picking Serbia to hit back and secure the bronze medal here.

It starts with having the best player on the floor. Despite battling foul trouble, Nikola Jokic continued his strong play with 17 points and 11 assists on Thursday, and no one on this German roster can come close to the level of defense that Joel Embiid played against Joker. 

The three-time NBA MVP can take over any Game, but this is no one-man show. Bogdan Bogdanovic was fearless against the Americans, pouring in 20 points, while Aleksa Avramovic and Ognjen Dobric knocked down timely shots. Vasilije Micic is also a wily operator off the bench to keep the offense afloat when Jokic is on the bench.

With Jokic pulling the strings and drawing a crowd whenever he catches the ball down low, the Serbians can walk into open jump shots. They made 15 of their 39 triples in the semifinal and a repeat of that sharpshooting would leave the Germans on the ropes.

Germany has more NBA experience across the roster, but there was too much Dennis Schroder and not enough Franz Wagner in the loss to France. A free-scoring German offense fell short of the 70-point mark that night, and I prefer to trust Jokic to engineer good looks for Serbia as the narrow favorites here. 

Joker and the Thief

My Nikola Jokic prop: Over 10.5 rebounds (-110)

As usual, Jokic has been stuffing the stat sheet at this tournament, and it’s his rebounds prop that stands out here. He’s been a force on the glass, tallying 14 rebounds in the overtime quarterfinal victory against Australia and 13 boards against South Sudan.

Jokic has seen enough of German frontcourt options Daniel Theis and Mo Wagner in NBA action to know how to win those matchups, and I expect this to be an up-tempo contest with plenty of misses to vacuum up. Though the three-time NBA MVP will likely log fewer than 30 minutes, he’s going to be parked near the rim for most of his floor time, and Serbia can get some easy buckets when he grabs the rebound and brings the ball up the court.

The Germans will surely put extra bodies on him in the paint, but the Joker’s ability to box out at both ends of the court still provides a path to 11 or more rebounds.

Germany vs Serbia same-game parlay (SGP)

Bogdanovic has had some lights-out shooting performances at these Olympics, including a 30-point outburst against South Sudan where he went 6-for-9 on 3-pointers.

He knocked down three triples against both the Australians and the Americans, and he’s always a threat to get up double-digit attempts from downtown. Bogdanovic, who riled up the USA roster by imitating a Carmelo Anthony celebration during the semifinal, is a 38% 3-point shooter in his NBA career and he’ll be one of the beneficiaries from the double teams that Jokic absorbs in the post.  

I’m also fading Schroder's points prop. The German point guard ended up taking 18 shots against France and making just six of them, with too many possessions ending in him firing up a 3-pointer. We should see a better balance to the Germany offense here, and I’m predicting Schroder to respond with a solid assist tally but a dip in shot volume.

Learn how to bet a same-Game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Germany vs Serbia odds

Odds as of 8-9.

Germany vs Serbia game info