France vs Brazil Odds, Picks & Predictions – Olympic Men's Basketball

The field of comPetition in Men’s Basketball for the 2024 Paris Olympics is arguably the most comPetitive and star-studded ever assembled.

The host nation, France, begins group play against Brazil on July 27, and its hopes largely weigh on the shoulders of 20-year-old basketball phenom Victor Wembanyama. 

I believe oddsmakers are underestimating the potency of the French defense, and I detail why in my France vs. Brazil predictions.

France vs Brazil prediction

My best bet
France -9.5 (-105)

My analysis
France comes into the Paris Olympics on a four-game losing skid in exhibition play, dropping games to Germany, Serbia, Canada, and Australia. That skid — and its underwhelming performance in last year’s FIBA World Cup — has undermined oddsmakers' confidence in the host nation.

That’s why France is only a -9.5-point favorite over Brazil, but I believe it should have a much bigger edge due to talent and matchup advantages.

Brazil had a pretty nice showing in last year’s FIBA World Cup despite a talent deficit, including an upset win over Team Canada, who eventually captured bronze. Brazil's guard play is the nations' strongest asset, which also happens to be France’s weakness. But what France lacks in offensive firepower, it more than makes up for with strong defenders at nearly every position.

Victor Wembanyama also didn’t play in the World Cup as he prepared for his rookie season as a San Antonio Spur. He’s now playing, and if the exhibitions are anything to go by, he'll be the centerpiece of the French offense.

That is a problem for Brazil it is painfully lacking in size. Bruno Caboclo, of “two years away from being two years away” fame, is shoehorned into playing center for Brazil despite being a 6-foot-9 power forward. 

If Brazil wants to play the 6-foot-10 Cristiano Felicio or Lucas Dias instead, it’ll be dominated in terms of talent as well. Victor is already capable of beating All-NBA caliber bigs like Anthony Davis one-on-one. When unleashed against players who wouldn’t sniff a contemporary NBA roster, he's going to cause major problems.

I believe the French defense and length at every position will short circuit the Brazilian offense, and their size should carry the possession battle on the glass, allowing them to cover at -9.5.

Wemby walks all over Brazil

My Victor Wembanyama prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-105)

Wembanyama is the most highly touted European prospect of all time, and yet I believe a core part of his game is still underrated. Wemby is 7-foot-4, but it’s his standing reach of around 10 feet that sets him apart. 

He can snatch rebounds from over the top of even other gigantic NBA players without committing an over-the-back foul in the process. It lets him rebound from out of position, but he doesn’t rely on it either, as he doggedly fights for good spots on the court and boxes out better than most young bigs.

Wemby didn’t play a high minute load in the exhibitions but still produced at a high level. He was also dogged by a viral infection that should be cleared up by now.

His comPetition on the glass against Brazil is also simply outmatched. Caboclo is not a great rebounder, even for a power forward, and he averaged just four rebounds for Partizan last season. He made a good showing on the glass in the qualifying tournament but has not faced a rebounder remotely comparable to Wemby.

France vs Brazil same-game parlay (SGP)

Brazil's offense is largely built around pick and roll, but lead guards Marcelo Huertas and Yago Santos are 6-foot-3 and 5-foot-9, respectively. They’re crafty players and better offense ballhandlers than anyone on France, But France’s guard defense will be a tough nut to crack.

Wemby’s old Metropolitans 92 teammate and Washington Wizard prospect Bilal Coulibaly and former New York Knicks draft pick Frank Ntilikina are smothering defensive forces with wingspans to match. Brazil is also light on shooting, meaning it'll have to break the paint and contend with the twin towers defense of Rudy Gobert and Wembanyama to score.

Nobody in the world is better defending the pick-and-roll one-on-two than Gobert, and he’s dealt with much better roll men than Caboclo. I expect France to shut down Brazil’s bread-and-butter offense and grab every defensive rebound, which should see the Brazilian offense sputter.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

France vs Brazil odds

Odds as of 7-26.

France vs Brazil game info