Expert MLB best bets, picks and predictions today, 9/22 | Pickswise

The finish line is in sight. Next Sunday is the final day of the MLB regular season, so for teams like the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rangers and more, this will be a stressful final week. On the flip side, for teams like the Guardians and Athletics, they’re just waiting for the season to be over. I’m targeting both the Guardians and A’s in today’s best bets column, so let’s get into my MLB best bets for Friday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for today.

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Baltimore Orioles ML over Cleveland Guardians (+100)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Shane Bieber will return to the mound with just over a week remaining in the regular season. Admittedly, I was very surprised to see him back on the bump in Cleveland this year. Bieber was placed on the 60-day injured list with an elbow injury in early July which people assumed would end his season. However, the veteran wants another start or two in hopes of earning a better contract next season. Terry Francona announced that Bieber would be on an 80-pitch limit, which means he should be able to get through 4-5 innings. Bieber will face an Orioles lineup that is still gunning for the AL East title, which means every win matters. Baltimore was able to clinch a playoff berth a few days ago, but the Rays are still on their heels in the AL East, so they haven’t been able to clinch the division just yet. But with a few more wins and some more Tampa Bay losses, it’s only a matter of time. The Orioles faced Bieber once this season and it turned out to be his worst outing of the season as the former Cy Young was shelled for 7 runs and 8 hits in just 4 innings. 

One of the unsung heroes of the Orioles this season has been Dean Kremer. The 27-year-old struggled in the first half of the season with a 4.78 ERA and allowed a .280 batting average and .286 xBA. However, he’s been a completely different pitcher in the last two months. Since August 1, the right-hander owns a 2.84 ERA and has limited hitters to a .222 batting average and a 34% hard-hit rate. Kremer mixes in 5-6 pitches per outing, but his main two are his fastball and cutter that make up over 50% of his pitches, and those are two pitches the Guardians have struggled against. Since August 1, Cleveland ranks 23rd against fastballs and 22nd against cutters. A few more wins should lead to Baltimore’s first AL East title since 2014, so I’m backing them at a great price on Friday night.

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Detroit Tigers ML over Oakland Athletics (-135)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

The Athletics are counting down the days until the playoffs — not because they’re in the postseason, but because that’s when their historically bad season finally ends. The Athletics come into Friday’s Game with a 46-107 record, and it’s really hard to find a silver lining to the season. It looked like the silver lining could have been Mason Miller, but missed a lot of the season with an injury shortly after arriving in the big leagues. But back to tonight, the A’s will send Ken Waldichuk to the mound for his 34th appearance and 21st start of the season. The rookie hasn’t been great this season with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP, and his biggest problem has been his control. Waldichuk owns an 11.5% walk rate, which puts him in the 11th percentile in that category. That’s an area the Tigers should be able to exploit since Detroit owns the 5th highest walk rate against left-handed pitchers since August 1. But that’s not all they’re good at against lefties since they also rank 7th in on-base percentage, 10th in OPS and 9th in wRC+ in the last month. 

Remember the name: Sawyer Gipson-Long. The Tigers’ #19 prospect started the season in Double-A but is finishing 2023 in Detroit. He made his debut two weeks ago against the White Sox, a great soft launch into the big leagues, and went 5 innings and allowed 2 runs and 4 hits while striking out 5. But it was in his second start that we saw the potential – he threw 5 innings against the Angels and surrendered just 1 run and 2 hits while recording 11 strikeouts. That means in 10 innings pitched in the MLB, Gipson-Long has limited hitters to a .137 xBA and a 41% strikeout rate. His insanely high strikeout rate isn’t unusual by any means since he had 50 strikeouts in just 34.2 innings in Triple-A.

But here’s my favorite part about Gipson-Long — he barely uses his fastball. Unless you’re Spencer Strider or Luis Castillo and have incredible vertical movement and velocity on your fastball, it’s likely going to be a vulnerable pitch. Gipson-Long’s primary pitch is a slider that has 13% more horizontal movement and 11% more vertical movement than the average MLB slider. After that, he has a devastating changeup that has gotten a 60.9% whiff rate through 2 starts. And since August 1, the Athletics rank in the bottom half of the league against both of those pitches. Detroit is 6-2 in their last 8 games while the A’s have lost 8 in a row, so what’s another loss for Oakland at this point?

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