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Celtics vs Raptors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA

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1y ago

Nov 18, 2023 / 847 Views

Evan Walker

It’s the same old problem for the Toronto Raptors. Stuck in the middle. Good enough that they won’t be looking at a top lottery pick. But clearly not good enough to comPete with the contenders in the Eastern Conference.

Eventually, sitting in the middle of the NBA odds won’t be good enough and the Raptors will need to choose a lane. But for now, one of those contending teams, the Boston Celtics, make their way to The Six tonight to show them how far behind the Raps really are.

The Celtics suffocated Toronto when these teams last met just six days ago, and getting buckets could be difficult once again this time around with Boston laying 7.5 points on the road.

I break down this Atlantic Division matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Raptors on November 17.

Celtics vs Raptors odds

Celtics vs Raptors predictions

The Raptors have shown glimpses of their potential at times this season in impressive wins against the Bucks and the Mavericks. Scottie Barnes looks like he is taking a third-year leap. And the team seems to be buying into Darko Rajakovic’s system. At least on the defensive end of the floor.

But the same old problems seem to be plaguing the Raptors. Frankly, they are still just not a very good team when it comes to shooting the basketball. Toronto ranks 27th in offensive rating, 25th in effective field goal percentage, and 28th in 3-point shooting percentage. And good defensive teams have really given them problems.

The Raptors have played five games against teams in the NBA's Top 11 when it comes to defensive rating. They have only topped the century mark once in those five games (107 points against the 76ers on Oct. 28), and are averaging 97.6 points, shooting just 42.1% from the field.

That includes the Celtics limiting the Raptors to just 94 points on just 38.5% shooting, and an ugly 10-37 (27%) from 3-point range when these two teams met last Saturday in Boston. The Raptors were at full strength there — this time around it sounds like 3-and-D wing OG Anunoby will miss another game with a finger injury.

It could be more of the same when these teams meet on Friday night. With the addition of Jrue Holiday, the Celtics have been absolutely suffocating opponents at the defensive end of the floor. Boston ranks second in the NBA in defensive rating, fourth in opponent eFG%, and ninth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

So, I’m looking at the Raptors team total of 108.5 and wondering what I am missing. Yes, Jaylen Brown is questionable with an illness, but this Celtics team has enough depth to alleviate Brown’s absence. Otherwise, the Raptors have proven time and again they can’t go Over a number like this against a defense this good.

My best bet: Raptors team total Under 108.5 (-120 at PointsBet)

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Celtics vs Raptors same-game parlay

Raptors team total Under 108.5

Pascal Siakam Under 21.5 points

Celtics first half -4.5

+320 at PointsBet

As always, our same-game parlay begins with our best bet, which for this Atlantic Division showdown is the Raptors to go Under their team total of 108.5 points. One of the reasons scoring could be down for the Raps tonight is that Pascal Siakam has generally struggled against the Celtics over the course of his career.

Spicy P, has been more like Mild P when facing Boston. Siakam has played 21 career Games against the Celtics and is scoring 16.6 points per Game. That includes putting up 17 points on 6-for-17 shooting when these teams last met last Saturday.

Siakam is kind of a microcosm for the Raptors’ shooting woes. All his best games have come against weaker opponents. On top of that, his usage is down. Add Under 21.5 points for Siakam in this matchup.

And let’s close this SGP out by taking advantage of the Raps’ propensity for digging themselves in holes. Toronto scores an NBA-low 49.7 first-half points per Game. Boston ranks second in the NBA at 61.1 points. Take Boston on the first-half spread.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Looking to bet on some Raptors action? Join PointsBet, one of Canada’s favourite books for new bettors!

Celtics vs Raptors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Raptors opened this matchup as 6.5-point home underdogs, but bettors don’t have much faith in them at this point. The Celtics have seen the majority of the early money, moving the line to 7.5, and even some 8s have started popping up at some shops.

Now, generally, the Raptors have been a much better team at home in recent years. But it feels like against a team such as the Celtics, that doesn’t matter as much. Boston looks like arguably the best team in the NBA this season. Not only are the Cs getting after it on defense, led by Jayson Tatum, they also rank third in offensive rating.

Furthermore, they've owned this matchup with the Raps recently, winning seven of the last eight matchups straight up and against the spread. So, it’s no surprise to see the support for Boston here.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 218 and the Over has been hammered, moving the number up to 224. I’m on the Raps team total Under, so I would lean toward the full-game Under as well, as the Celtics will have to do most of the heavy lifting here.

The Raptors ranking eighth in defensive rating helps the case for the Under as well.

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