Celtics vs Mavs Prop Picks and Best Bets for Game 4 of the NBA Finals

Prop bet #1: Doncic Under 32.5 points

The dialogue about Luka Doncic between now and Game 4 will be all about him fouling out, but that is arguably more symptom than cause. Doncic is clearly fatigued due to a combination of existing injuries and the Boston Celtics' consistent physical play. Fatigue makes players make foolish decisions, which led to nearly all of Luka’s fouls.

Reports that the Dallas Mavericks superstar is receiving a painkilling injection pre-game due to his thoracic injury track with the eye test. Doncic has come out strong early in every game of the series, only to wear down substantially as the game goes on, presumably as the painkiller wears off and his sprained knee bothers him more and more. He began Game 3 shooting 5-of-7 from the field, and went just 6-of-20 the rest of the way.

Another factor in Luka’s limited success was the play of Xavier Tillman. Many (including myself) expected that Luke Kornet would play in the absence of Kristaps Porzingis, as he had done through most of the regular season and all playoffs. Boston went with the smaller, more switchable Tilman, and he proved his worth immediately by holding up in isolation multiple times against both Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

The state of Doncic's body reminds me of his play in the Oklahoma City Thunder series when he averaged just 24.7 points, making the Under on his points prop one of my best plays for Thursday.

Prop bet #2: Tatum Under 3.5 threes

Game 3 was the best shooting game of the series for Jayson Tatum, which is damning with faint praise. After a hot start, he cooled off, and while he did have 31 points, he went just 4-for-13 from deep.

Tatum was taking quite a few bad shots early in the clock without breaking the paint. Many of his shots were stepbacks in isolation off little or no ball movement.

The Celtics looked like they had come to rely on five-out spacing provided by 48 minutes of either Al Horford or Kristaps Porzingis to generate their offense. Eventually, they snapped out of it and got better looks inside, which means Tatum should drive and kick more on Friday, rather than jack up contested threes without bending the defense.

Boston's star forward also took just seven attempts from deep in both Games 1 and 2 combined, and with a normalized number of attempts in Game 4, it’s difficult for me to imagine him hitting four again.

Prop bet #3: Lively II Over 8.5 rebounds 

One of the stories of this series has been Dereck Lively II, and unfortunately for him, not in a good way.

After powering through the Western Conference, Lively finally looked like a rookie for large stretches of the NBA Finals, and it has cost the Mavs dearly. He has been over-aggressive on closeouts and when helping on drives, all of which has keyed the Celtics' drive and kick game and sent Lively spiraling into foul trouble hell.

However, Lively had a much better showing in Game 3. He was more patient and deliberate, avoided silly fouls, and played his role as the main deterrent around the rim. That saw him play a series-high 30 minutes, and he was a +6 in that stretch after having been a team-worst -30 through two games. That increased run also saw him grab a whopping 13 rebounds.

Lively’s play suffered when stretched out a few feet behind the arc due to the combination of Horford and Porzingis, but the Mavs largely let him stay home in the paint in Game 3. He also towers over the 6-foot-8 Tillman and dominates the glass when the two share the floor.

Closing out to Porzingis is much more difficult than to Horford, and Lively can better split the difference of guarding Al outside while still getting back to owning the defensive glass since Horford has a much slower release. Horford is also going to be straining under increased minutes and just a single day off between games.

Lively's rebounding O/U of 8.5 isn't accounting enough for Porzingis’ likely absence, which will ultimately see Lively stay closer to the rim in Game 4.

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