Big 12 Conference Season Preview 2023: NCAAF Predictions & Odds

The Oklahoma Sooners dominated the Big 12 under Lincoln Riley, winning 4 straight conference titles after the Big 12 re-installed its conference championship game in 2017. Before last season, the Sooners were the only Big 12 team to reach the College Football Playoff. However, Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs put an end to that trend and became the conference’s first representative to make the national championship game during the College Football Playoff era. The Horned Frogs barely snuck in as the fourth seed following its loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship, but they got past Michigan in the first round before Georgia dashed their dreams of winning a national title.

With so many of TCU and Kansas State’s key pieces playing in the NFL this year, there could be 2 new teams in the Big 12 championship and a 4th different conference champion could be crowned in as many seasons. Texas is the prevailing favorite in its final season in the Big 12 before it bolts for the SEC with Oklahoma, but can the Longhorns live up to the hype – or will they fall short of expectations yet again?

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Big 12 Championship odds

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Texas Longhorns (+105)
Oklahoma Sooners (+380)
Kansas State Wildcats (+500)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+1100)
Baylor Bears (+1600)
TCU Horned Frogs (+2100)
UCF Golden Knights (+3500)
Iowa State Cyclones (+4000)
Kansas Jayhawks (+4800)
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+5000)
Cincinnati Bearcats (+7000)
West Virginia Mountaineers (+7000)
BYU Cougars (+10000)
Houston Cougars (+12000)

As previously mentioned, the Texas Longhorns are the prevailing favorite to win the Big 12 in their final season in the conference, followed by Oklahoma and Kansas State as the only other teams with odds under 10-1. Texas Tech and Baylor headline the second tier of Big 12 teams along with TCU, while newcomer UCF has the best odds out of the 4 new members to finish the season atop the conference. Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, and West Virginia are pretty significant longshots to be Big 12 champions in the 40-1 to 70-1 range, and BYU and Houston are both 100-1 or longer due to expected struggles with the step up in comPetition. 

Big 12 Contenders

Texas Longhorns

The decade-long question surrounding the Longhorn program has been “is Texas back?”, and to answer that question heading into this season – I think so! The Longhorns return a plethora of talent in Steve Sarkisian’s third season in Austin, starting with quarterback Quinn Ewers. Ewers had some accuracy issues, but he has a rocket of an arm and ranked 16th in big time throw rate out of 96 FBS quarterbacks with 300 or more dropbacks per PFF. He also struggled a bit under pressure, but I am not convinced the defenses in the Big 12 will be able to exploit that this season. Ewers faced pressure on just 22.6% of his dropbacks last year, which was the 7th-lowest percentage of 144 qualified FBS quarterbacks. The offensive line returns all 5 starters and should have some competitive depth, putting itself in position to improve on its top 30 pass-block ranking from a season ago.

Furthermore, the pass-catching group is loaded with talent, which will be relied upon heavily to make up for the losses of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson in the backfield. Defensively, the Longhorns hope to continue improving after allowing 9.5 less points per Game and 1.1 less yards per play in 2022 than they did in 2021. The defensive coaching staff remains intact, and the Longhorns return 3 of their top 4 tacklers as well as their leader in sacks in Barryn Sorrell – but they will need improved production in the secondary and more forced turnovers if they want to take another step forward in 2023. 

Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners hope another offseason with continued recruiting success under second-year coach Brent Venables will improve their results from last season when they finished with a losing record for the first time since 1998. After winning their first 3 games, they lost 7 of their last 10 including back-to-back 30+ point losses to TCU and Texas in early October. Fortunately, Dillon Gabriel returns to be the starting quarterback in Norman, but loses a handful of talented pieces around him in wide receiver Marvin Mims, running back Eric Gray, and 3 of his best offensive linemen. Venables brought in a few transfers and talented freshmen to fill in the voids left by those departed for the NFL, but overall, I question this offense’s ceiling. The remaining weapons at wide receiver and running back have not shown game-breaking abilities at the college level like Mims and Gray, and the offensive line does not have anyone who has proven to be a top 80 lineman at the Power 5 level.

Similarly, there are question marks on the defensive side of the ball. The Sooners ranked 99th in scoring defense last year and outside the top 120 in total defense. They need to be much more physical this year, especially on the front 7, and produce more sacks after ranking outside the top 60 with just 28 in 2022. Furthermore, some new faces will have to step up in the secondary, as Oklahoma has just 1 returning defensive back that ranks in the top 100 in pass coverage. The schedule is relatively friendly to the Sooners, especially early in the season, but the 3-game stretch at Texas, against UCF, and at Kansas will ultimately decide the ceiling of Oklahoma’s season. 

Kansas State Wildcats

After signing a lucrative contract extension, Chris Klieman will remain in Manhattan and continue improving the trajectory of the Kansas State football program following its Big 12 championship a season ago. The Wildcats lost star running back Deuce Vaughn and go-to receiver Malik Knowles, but quarterback Will Howard returns for his senior season after leading the team to a 4-1 record and posting 1,633 passing yards and 15 touchdowns in 5 starts. He will play behind an offensive line that brings back all 5 starting pieces and will be joined by Florida State transfer running back Treshaun Ward in the backfield – who will compliment DJ Giddens nicely as life after Vaughn begins. The wide receiver core is largely inexperienced and unproven, but tight end Ben Sinnott will be a solid security blanket for Howard after catching 4 touchdowns and ranking top 10 in yards per reception among Power 5 tight ends with at least 20 targets.

On the defensive side of the ball, less than 50% of production returns from a unit that held opponents to less than 22 points per game. Replacing defensive leaders Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Eli Huggins, and Julius Brents will be difficult, but Kansas State does not play many teams outside of Texas, Kansas, and maybe TCU that have proven quarterbacks at the power conference level. 

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Big 12 teams to look out for

Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Red Raiders are intriguing this season considering they avoid Oklahoma while drawing Kansas State and TCU at home. Road games against Kansas and Texas in 2 of the final 3 weeks of the regular season will be the most challenging part of the schedule, but second year coach Joey McGuire returns close to 80% of Texas Tech’s offensive production including its 5 top receivers as well as Austin Peay transfer Drae McCray – who accumulated 1,021 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2022. The defense will have to replace Tyree Wilson and 3 of its other top 5 tacklers, but there are still experienced veterans remaining from last year’s unit that ranked top 10 in red zone defense among FBS programs. 

TCU Horned Frogs

Since 2019, Sonny Dykes is 38-12 as a head coach and has proven to be a successful recruiter and offensive mind in that time. While it may be tough to repeat last season’s offensive success with Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, Emari Demercado, Quentin Johnston, and Taye Barber in the NFL and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley at Clemson, TCU brings back Chandler Morris – who was named the starting quarterback before a season-ending injury in Week 1 – as well as both starting tackles to go along with some power conference transfers at wide receiver and interior offensive line.

On the other side of the ball, the Horned Frogs will have over 70% of its defensive production back including their shut-down corner Josh Newton – who ranked 4th in percentage of targets caught against per PFF. However, their schedule is absolutely brutal as they play all 4 teams currently at the top of the Big 12 odds board in their final 5 regular season games.

Kansas Jayhawks

Over 90% of the offensive production returns after the Jayhawks ranked in the top 25 in points per Game and explosiveness last season – including both quarterbacks Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean. In all, Kansas ranks top 5 in returning production after the program’s winningest season in the last 25 years. The defense will have to improve to be in the Big 12 title conversation, but the schedule is manageable outside of the Week 4 trip to Austin.

Big 12 best bet: Texas Longhorns to win the Big 12 (+105 at FanDuel)

As long as the books are offering plus-money on the Texas Longhorns, I am a buyer. On paper, the Longhorns have the least amount of question marks in the conference with so many quality pieces returning to go along with talented transfer and freshman classes on both sides of the ball. I believe Ewers has the highest upside among the Big 12 quarterbacks, and he should benefit not only from another offseason as the starter in Sarkisian’s system but from playing behind an incredibly talented offensive line that does not allow much pressure and throwing to an elite group of wide receivers that could be one of the nation’s best.

Texas’s schedule is manageable, especially in conference where it will have just 1 back-to-back road trip while drawing Kansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas State at home – so I have a hard time seeing the Longhorns losing more than 1 conference game and expect them to be a favorite in all of them. As long as they make it to the conference championship, they are going to be favored against anyone else in the Big 12, making plus-money odds to win the conference very appealing.

Big 12 best longshot bet: Kansas Jayhawks to win the Big 12 (+4800 at FanDuel)

The Big 12 is Texas’s to lose, but Kansas’s returning production and favorable schedule caught my attention. The Jayhawks will avoid TCU and do not have any back-to-back road games in conference. Furthermore, they will play Oklahoma at home after a bye week, and are lucky enough to get Texas Tech and Kansas State at home as well. If Kansas can escape its conference schedule with just 2 losses, the Jayhawks would have a great chance of making the Big 12 championship game – giving you a realistic chance at cashing this longshot bet or at least giving you the opportunity to hedge and guarantee some profit.

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