Best NBA Player Props Today - March 22

Prop bet #1: Andrew Nembhard

I'm sticking with Andrew Nembhard on Friday, even though he didn't deliver a win for us on Wednesday against the Detroit Pistons. The +135 odds offered by bet365 on Nembhard's assists prop are a major reason for this decision. At 3.5 (+135), we just have to take them up on this number and not let Wednesday's loss scare us away.

Nembhard will face the Golden State Warriors on Friday. The last time the Indiana Pacers and Warriors met, Tyrese Haliburton, TJ McConnell (whose assists prop I also bet Over at 4.5 +110), and Nembhard combined for 37 potential assists. The remarkable part is that none of the Pacers guards played more than 26 minutes because Stephen Curry was hitting logo threes, and the game was a blowout.

If you watch their matchup on February 8, you'll see the Pacers opening the Game with back-to-back pick-and-rolls with Nembhard and Myles Turner, looking to attack the smaller Draymond Green on Turner. I'm sure it was also an attempt to have Curry defending the pick-and-roll with Green and attacking Curry on defense. I fully expect to see more of this from the Pacers on Friday, which will create more potential assists for Nembhard.

The minutes will be there for Nembhard on Friday as well. They are short on backcourt players following the trade deadline and Bennedict Mathurin's injury, so someone will have to chase Curry around on defense, and it won't be Haliburton.

Nembhard is projected to have 4.2 assists on Friday against the Warriors, which means we can price the Over 3.5 assists at -140, but it is available at bet365 at +135. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 37%.

Andrew Nembhard prop: Over 3.5 assists (+135 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Chet Holmgren

Chet Holmgren is facing the Toronto Raptors on Friday, and with the Oklahoma City Thunder favored by 15.5 points, this is a bit of a risky play due to the potential for a blowout. However, at 2.5 (+110) and considering the matchup specifically against the Raptors, I believe this opportunity is too good to pass up.

The Raptors have been allowing assists and potential assists to centers lately, which is what caught my attention with this prop for Holmgren. Domantas Sabonis managed to record a triple-double against the Raptors in just 28 minutes. Additionally, players like Jalen Duren and Wendell Carter Jr. having notable potential assists against them stood out to me.

Duren and Carter aren't known for their high assist rates, nor do they possess the same ability to play on the perimeter that Sabonis or Holmgren do. So, when even players like Duren and Carter are registering higher-than-normal potential assists against the Raptors, it's a significant indicator.

I anticipate Holmgren pulling Kelly Olynyk out to the perimeter and then finding cutters such as Josh Giddey or Jalen Williams for easy assists. With Olynyk starting at center and Ochai Agbaji starting at power forward, there's simply no rim protection on this Raptors roster. The Thunder have players who excel at making cuts and finishing at the rim, whom Holmgren can find for high-value potential assists.

Holmgren is projected to have 2.9 assists on Friday against the Raptors, which suggests we should price the Over 2.5 assists at -120, but it is available at DraftKings at +110.

Chet Holmgren prop: Over 2.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Jeremy Sochan

I've been tracking Jeremy Sochan's assists for a while now because his total went into a freefall with multiple Unders in a row, but I just never saw anything on film that made me want to hit the button on Sochan at a total of 2.5 until now.

If you remember at the beginning of the season, the San Antonio Spurs tried using Sochan at the point guard position, but it was a failed experiment, and they eventually moved him off the ball and made Tre Jones the starting point guard. The problem with Sochan's assists prop for a large chunk of time was that he was really just standing in the corner and not involved in too many actions. It was really hard to jump to the conclusion of backing the Over on his assists, even with the total and juice dropping.

Sochan may not be the point guard, but we have found a healthy middle ground here with Sochan, who is averaging 6.8 potential assists over his last 6 games. We're seeing him involved in some dribble handoff actions and running inversed pick-and-rolls with Victor Wembanyama, and he's generating potential assists off of both actions.

With the potential assists on the rise and the total still sitting at 2.5 with low juice on the Over, I'm hitting the button on Sochan on Friday. Sochan is projected to have 3.2 assists on Friday against the Memphis Grizzlies, which means we can price the Over 2.5 assists at -152, but it is available at bet365 at -105.

Jeremy Sochan prop: Over 2.5 assists (-105 at bet365)