Best NBA Player Props Today - March 20

Prop bet #1: Ivey league

When Jaden Ivey faced the Indiana Pacers on February 22, I bet on the Over 3.5 assists for the Detroit Pistons guard, and he fell just Under the total with three dimes. With Ivey's line set at 3.5 assists once again against the Pacers and favorable juice, I'm rolling with this bet again.

Simone Fontecchio and Cade Cunningham missed Monday's game for the Pistons against the Boston Celtics, and while Fontecchio is questionable with a toe injury on Wednesday, if Cunningham doesn't play, then you're stealing a great price on this Ivey assists prop.

When you look at the current construction of this Pistons roster, outside of Cunningham and Ivey, who else can create offense for others? Jalen Duren is more of a lob threat, while Fontecchio and Evan Fournier are more shooters who work off of someone creating offense for them.

With most of their current lineups, the Pistons need Ivey to create offense, and a matchup against the Pacers also plays right into his playing style. Ivey is a blur in the open court and thrives in a wide-open game, which is exactly how the Pacers like to play. Ivey should be able to get in the lane consistently against the Pacers and generate potential assists for his teammates.

Ivey is projected to have 4.5 assists against the Pacers on Wednesday, which means we can price the Over 3.5 assists at -178, but Jaden Ivey odds are available at DraftKings at -120.

Jaden Ivey prop: Over 3.5 assists (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: The Nembhard way

There are multiple Indiana Pacers showing value on their assists prop Wednesday night, but I'm going to roll with Andrew Nembhard odds in this spot. I just believe the Pistons are more vulnerable to giving up potential assists to guards than forwards, and you can see it in some of their recent matchups.

Derrick White and Payton Pritchard combined for 30 potential assists against the Pistons on Monday. Immanuel Quickley recently had 15 potential assists, and Vasilije Micic had 11 potential assists on March 11.

I also like rolling with Nembhard's assists prop because then we're relying on efficient Pascal Siakam to make the shots to convert the potential assists, instead of the other way around if we were betting on Siakam's assists prop. Also, Tyrese Haliburton, we're going to need you to make some 3-pointers, as Haliburton has been ice-cold from beyond the arc of late.

Betting on Nembhard's assists prop on March 20 is a lot safer than it was earlier in the season because the Pacers have a lot less depth on the wings. Buddy Hield and Bruce Brown were both dealt prior to the trade deadline, and Bennedict Mathurin is out with an injury. When you're looking at projecting minutes for Nembhard, the opportunity will be there.

Nembhard is projected to drop 4.1 dimes against the Pistons on Wednesday, which means we can price the Over 3.5 assists at -133, but it is available at bet365 at +110. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 20%.

Andrew Nembhard prop: Over 3.5 assists (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Desert rose

Not only are we playing an Over on Durant's assists prop on Wednesday, but I'm also attacking an alternate Over for Kevin Durant odds as the Phoenix Suns take on the Philadelphia 76ers. When you go shopping for this bet, you will probably see some 3.5 (-170) out there in the market. You can play that; it's still a good bet, but the alternate total of 4.5 (+135) is showing more than double the expected value, and that's the number I hit the button on.

The Suns roster lacks players who put pressure on the rim and play above the rim. It's not that Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal can't finish, but they aren't dunking on John Collins like Anthony Edwards.

What this means is a lot of Durant's potential assists are dependent on jump shots, which will always be there, but a matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers should open up more high-value potential assists for Durant. The 76ers lack rim protection, which means players such as Booker, Beal, Jusuf Nurkic, and even Grayson Allen should have a much easier time finishing around the rim on Wednesday.

Not only should Durant be able to find cutters for layups, but I think we could see several potential assists to Nurkic in the pick-and-roll. The 76ers will have to step on Durant's mid-range jumper, and once Durant hits Nurkic on the pocket pass, there will be very little resistance from the defense to stop Nurkic from finishing at the rim.

Durant is projected to have 4.9 assists on Wednesday against the 76ers, which means we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -116, but it is available at bet365 at +135. This bet shows a positive expected value of 26%.

Kevin Durant prop: Over 4.5 assists (+135 at bet365)

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