Best MLB prop bets for today, 9/19: Gallen strikeouts and the Astros strike early

With only 13 days left in the MLB regular season, playoff positioning is being settled as teams finalize their case for the postseason. Among those teams fighting for positioning are the Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks. We have prop bets related to both of those teams for tonight’s 15-Game MLB slate of Games. Let’s dive in!

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Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks) over 5.5 strikeouts (-105)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

Zac Gallen has lost pace in the race for the 2023 NL Cy Young, slipping a bit in performance of late, but the Arizona Diamondbacks’ ace is in a massive spot tonight as his team looks to stay in contention for the wild card. They are currently positioned in the playoffs with only 11 games left on the schedule. Gallen is undeniably their best arm, and with his team on a 3-game winning streak entering tonight’s contest the talented pitcher will look to keep their momentum going with a strong outing. His last start was not his best performance, allowing 7 runs in 5 innings, 6 of those runs being earned to his record. That start was on the road, however, and Gallen is notoriously much better when pitching at his home park. This season the righty has tossed 90.2 innings at home while posting a 2.18 ERA and holding his opponents to a .220 batting average. His strikeout rate sits at 30.5% in those innings compared to 21.7% when on the road, and he has cleared this 5.5 total in 11 of his 14 starts with home crowd support behind him.

Gallen’s ability to provide lengthy starts at home has been part of his success, as he has pitched 6 or more innings in 13 of those 14 starts. His last start at home lasted only 5.1 innings against the Orioles, but outside of that outing he has provided Arizona with long outings in that sample. With the tight playoff race and so few starts remaining for their ace, Arizona should give Gallen a lengthy leash, perhaps even sending him out for an extra inning. He is on 5 days of rest for this start, and the hope is that with extra rest he can work deep into this game. The matchup against San Francisco is one he has excelled in already this season, pitching 13.2 innings with 5 earned runs combined, clearing this 5.5 mark in both outings.

The Giants are likely to roll with 6 left-handed batters in their lineup, but this is not a worry in terms of strikeouts with Gallen, as his 25.3% K% against lefties is just below his 25.4% mark against right-handers. His 5-pitch mix is used against either handedness, and each of his top 4 offerings have a put away rate of at least 20%. Gallen’s 4-seam fastball leads his arsenal in usage, and his location on that pitch will be key in this matchup. His curveball plays extremely well off that 4-seamer, following the same tunnel out of the hand before breaking sharply. That pitch has generated a 42% whiff rate this season while amassing 73 of his 199 strikeouts. The Giants have struggled making contact with right-handed curveballs this season, striking out at the 9th highest rate. They have also struck out a ton against right-handed changeups with their 28.5% mark ranking as the 4th highest among the 30 teams. Gallen uses this pitch against either handedness, but against lefties his usage spikes to 20.4% while making those lefties whiff 30.8% of the time.

Gallen has had success against active Giants batters, with their combined strikeout rate sitting at 30.7% across a sample of 166 PA. Among the 9 players in tonight’s projected lineup, 7 have a strikeout rate of at least 21.1% against right-handed pitching this season, with 6 of them at 22.6% or higher and 4 of them at 25.2% or higher. Mike Yastrzemski and Thairo Estrada are projected to hit 1st and 2nd and have 12 combined strikeouts in their 37 PA against Gallen. I expect the Giants to score some runs against the right-hander, but with an expectation of 6 innings or more, a 5.5 strikeout line with this pricing is something I am more than willing to play.

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Houston Astros first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

The Houston Astros have 11 games left to play while holding a 1.5-game lead for 1st place in the division over both the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners. Houston has a 3-game set left to play in Seattle while the Rangers and Mariners will meet twice sandwiching that series. With so many head-to-head matchups remaining between the teams we are surely going to be in for an entertaining finish to what has been a very good division this season. Tonight, the Astros will play Kyle Gibson and the Baltimore Orioles for the second game of their series and the fifth time this season overall. Gibson did not face Houston in that first series, but the Astros have extensive history against the right-hander with a combined 210 PA of head-to-head results. In that sample the active Astros batters have a combined .276 AVG and .773 OPS while secondary contributors like Jose Abreu and Michael Brantley have had success in massive samples. Getting contributions from those players would go a long way towards cashing this bet, as the main guys in Houston’s lineup should be in line for success as well.

Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker will join Brantley from the left side of the plate where they can take advantage of Gibson’s inferior split. The right-handed pitcher is allowing left-handed batters to hit .297 against him this season with an .840 OPS and .362 wOBA. Gibson rarely walks batters, but his pitch-to-contact nature is tough to execute when he is getting hit as hard has is he. On the season Gibson ranks in the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate at 44.8% but his ability to keep the ball on the ground and avoid barrels has helped him prevent complete disaster. Since August began, however, his barrel rate has spiked to 9.8% while his hard-hit rate has jumped even higher to an extremely worrisome 52.6% mark. In that 7-start span Gibson has posted a 6.38 ERA and 5.27 FIP while allowing 3 or more earned runs in 6 of those starts. I expect Houston to do the same, but specifically within the first 5 innings of tonight’s contest.

Houston in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching ranks 1st in wOBA, OPS, and AVG while striking out at the lowest rate, walking at the 11th highest rate, and producing a wRC+ of 149. When isolating those numbers to the first 5 innings alone, Houston has a 153 wRC+ while recording an even higher batting average and lower strikeout rate. They put constant pressure on pitchers with their willingness to pounce on mistakes early in counts, and the depth of their lineup has improved dramatically as their Health has turned a corner. As currently constructed, when playing Diaz and McCormick, and having Abreu, Altuve, Alvarez, Brantley, Bregman, and Tucker Healthy at the same time, this lineup is one of the more dangerous groupings in the sport. They have cleared this 2.5 mark in the first 5 innings in 10 of their last 13 Games against right-handed starting pitchers. This includes tougher matchups against Max Scherzer, Brayan Bello, and Nathan Eovaldi as well.

You can also read today’s YRFI/NRFI Best Bets, plus our MLB mega parlay and Phillies vs Braves SGP!

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