Best MLB prop bets for today, 9/16: Braves and Phillies to score runs

The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants will play a doubleheader today, giving this Saturday slate a 16th game. With several avenues to entertainment on today’s card, the offenses that caught my eye the most were those of the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies. Let’s dive in!

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Atlanta Braves team total over 4.5 (-120)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

Ronald Acuna Jr. left yesterday’s game early with what he called a cramp. Following the game he stated to reporters: “I feel good. It just felt like a cramp. We’ll just see how I come in tomorrow and how I’m feeling and if I can play.” With so much locked in place for the postseason, the Braves’ final 2 weeks of the regular season is to set and crush records, and stay sharp for what they hope is a World Series run. The cautious approach from an outside perspective would be to sit their MVP candidate lead-off hitter, but Acuna Jr. has also played every game this season, something he is very proud of. A 4.5 team total for Atlanta while on the road against a bullpen game headlined by Bryan Hoeing is a bit puzzling unless the sportsbooks feel there is a good chance Acuna Jr. sits.

If the Braves’ superstar is in the lineup, I have a hard time believing their full-Game team total will remain at 4.5. If Acuna Jr. misses the Game, we may have grabbed a bad price relative to the adjusted one, but there are 29 other teams that would be more affected by losing their best player. The Braves lineup would presumably slide Michael Harris II into the leadoff spot while Kevin Pillar would likely replace Acuna Jr. in the outfield. Sean Murphy had yesterday off and is likely back in the lineup tonight which should bolster the bottom third of the order. A Harris II, Albies, Riley, Olson, Ozuna, Rosario, Murphy, Arcia, Pillar lineup would still rank among the best in baseball.

Hoeing is not stretched out, having thrown just 1 inning in his last outing on Thursday. With 68 pitches across 3.1 innings on the 10th he showed an ability to at least work multiple frames, but we can expect to see several Marlin relievers entering this Game. Hoeing himself ranks 13th percentile in hard-hit rate, 36th percentile in xBA and the 37th percentile in barrel rate, and his 10.5% K-BB% isn’t the greatest. Despite 1 home run allowed in his first 24 innings this season, his last 38.1 innings of work have seen 9 surrendered. This is not a good sign when the most powerful offense in baseball is his next opponent. Behind him is a bullpen that has been worked in recent Games. Among their relievers, 4 have been used at least twice in the last 3 days including some of their high leverage arms. Their unit ranks 17th in ERA across the last 30 days overall as well. With all 9 innings locked in offensively regardless of score for Atlanta I am more than willing to back the Braves again.

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Philadelphia Phillies team total over 4.5 (-110)

Odds available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

Outside of the Braves, the Philadelphia Phillies have one of the more dangerous offenses in the sport. Across the last 30 days against right-handed pitching Philadelphia actually outranks Atlanta in several categories. During that span the Phillies are 1st in OPS and wOBA, 5th in AVG, 9th in BB% and 2nd in wRC+ at 135. They have moved Nick Castellanos out of the cleanup spot and into the 8-hole. This has moved hotter bats in Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm into higher-leverage positioning and allowed the veteran slugger to find his groove with better pitches to hit. The change has extended the lineup and helped them string together some long innings. J.T. Realmuto has also been much more productive on the road this season, contributing a .968 OPS away from home compared to a .566 OPS in Philly. The top of the order is what has truly set this lineup apart in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, however, as Schwarber, Turner and Harper have posted respective wOBA’s of .554, .598, and .468 in that sample.

Today the Phillies face off against Miles Mikolas and a shaky Cardinals bullpen. Mikolas has allowed 3 or more earned runs on his own in each of his last 6 starts. In that span the right-hander has posted a 6.94 ERA, 6.59 FIP, 5.69 SIERA, 52.0% hard-hit rate, 13.4%-barrel rate, .292 opponent batting average, and a 4.5% K-BB%. Among those 6 starts was an outing against these same Phillies, allowing 8 hits and 5 earned runs. With only 3 weeks having passed since that matchup, the Philadelphia batters should have a good sense of how to approach him, and I expect them to hit quickly with runs the first time through the order. Mikolas has allowed opponents to his .307 against him the first time through this season. He also has an ERA over a full run higher when pitching at home this season. Behind Miles is a St. Louis bullpen ranking 24th in ERA and 28th in FIP in the last 30 days of play. The Cardinals have allowed 5 or more runs in 7 of his last 10 starts, and I expect more of the same from their opponent today.

Be sure to also read today’s MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets.

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