Best MLB prop bets for today, 5/27: A tough matchup for Clayton Kershaw

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays facing off feels like a potential World Series preview and tonight’s pitching matchup should be fun to watch. Tyler Glasnow makes his season debut for the Rays after dealing with an oblique strain and the league is a better place when he is Healthy. Clayton Kershaw will take the mound for the Dodgers and he is the focus of my play today. Let’s dive in!

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Clayton Kershaw (LAD) under 18.5 outs recorded (-150) (0.75U)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds (risking 1.2U to win 0.75U)

It is never fun betting against someone as lethal as Clayton Kershaw, but this play jumped off the board to me this morning. The future Hall of Fame southpaw is having another productive season for Los Angeles. That being said, efficiency hasn’t been Kershaw’s strong suit of late, and he has failed to make it out of the 5th inning in 3 of his last 4 starts. The only time he surpassed that mark during that span was against Milwaukee, which has noted struggles against lefties. Even when Kershaw has been more effective with his pitch count, exiting after the 6th inning has been his most likely scenario. In 10 starts this season the left-hander has been held under 18.5 outs 7 times, including 5 of 6 on the road. Dating back to last season he has gone under 18.5 in 24 of 33 starts. While he isn’t on a pitch count or anything, Los Angeles would love to get a full season out of him and aren’t likely to overextend him without cause. With between 149 and 236 innings thrown each season from 2009 to 2019, Kershaw has a ton of miles logged. He has failed to reach 127 or more IP in each of the last 3 seasons, however.

Kershaw is still a top-end arm in an elite team’s rotation, but his 3.97 pitches per plate appearance ranks in just the 31st percentile while Tampa Bay draws a league-average 3.91 pitches/PA. He draws a tough matchup today against a lethal Rays lineup. Tampa Bay has the ability to stack its lineup with 9 RHB against southpaws, and the results have been fantastic. The Rays rank 1st in both wOBA and ISO this season against left-handed pitching while posting a wRC+ of 168. None of the 10 left-handed starters to face Tampa Bay have recorded more than 18 outs. Albeit none are as good as Kershaw, but those arms have allowed a combined 51 earned runs in their 46.2 IP. The lanky left-hander uses a 3-pitch mix with his slider, 4-seamer, and curveball ranked in order of usage. Tampa Bay matches up extremely well against that arsenal, ranking 1st in RV/100 against the 4-seamer, while ranking 2nd against the slider and 3rd against the curveball in that same metric. Los Angeles has a fully rested bullpen behind Kershaw having had Thursday off and using only Justin Bruihl in relief last night. Should Tampa Bay be able to run up his pitch count, the Dodgers have plenty of options to turn to in the later stages.

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