Best MLB prop bet for Tuesday, 10/10: Always Sonny in Minnesota

The Minnesota Twins will host a home playoff game today against the Houston Astros with the series currently tied up at 1-1. Game 3 has numerous pathways to entertainment, and we should expect this series to remain competitive throughout. Sonny Gray has been tagged as the Game 3 starter for the Twins and he is the focus of our player prop article for today. Let’s dive in!

Check out our Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins predictions

Sonny Gray (MIN) over 14.5 outs recorded (-135)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.

I spent a long time this morning debating how I wanted to bet on Sonny Gray, and over 14.5 outs recorded is the angle I ultimately landed on. The Minnesota Twins have tied the ALDS at 1-1 with their Game 2 victory over the Houston Astros, and now at home they will turn to their most consistent arm this season. While Pablo Lopez provides the team with the most upside on a start-to-start basis, Gray has been a steady producer for the team this season and a key part of their success. The right-hander contributed 184 regular season innings this year, the most since his 2015 season in Oakland. Those 184 innings of work were spread out amongst his 32 outings, and he recorded 5 or more innings in 28 of those starts. Among his 4 times going under, one of them was his season debut with rust leading to a season-high 4 walks. Another was his final regular season start where he was intentionally held to only 55 pitches across 4 efficient innings.

Sonny pitched in Game 2 of the wild card series against Toronto, tossing 5 innings of scoreless baseball with 85 pitches across his 21 batters faced. Even at decreased efficiency he was able to register 5 complete frames, and Minnesota won that Game 2-0 as a result. Gray averaged just 3.73 pitches per plate appearance this season, ranking 14th best among MLB’s 100 qualified pitchers. His final 14 regular season starts that followed the all-star break resulted in an even lower 3.55 pitches per PA, a mark that would have ranked tied for first if replicated across the full season. In that span he had Games with 6 innings in 80 pitches against Kansas City, 7 innings in 77 pitches against St. Louis, 6 innings in 80 pitches against Philadelphia, 7 innings in 81 pitches against Texas, 7 innings in 81 pitches against Cleveland, and 7 innings in 81 pitches against the White Sox. In those final 14 regular season starts, he posted a 4.8% BB%, 45.9% GB%, 2.67 ERA, and 2.83 FIP.

Part of what makes Sonny so consistent is his level splits across the board. He has succeeded similarly against batters of either handedness, or regardless of location. While still very good on the road, Gray has been slightly better in his home ballpark. This should continue today as pitching conditions appear to be ideal. With temperatures in the mid-to-low 50’s Ballpark Pal is projecting a 21% decrease in home run chances and an 8% decrease in overall run scoring. Gray already limits the deep ball well with a 0.39 HR/9 on the year and a 0.84 HR/9 for his career. Houston is undeniably a tough opponent to run into, and they have admittedly been far better when on the road this season. Minnesota has plenty of bullpen depth including multi-inning relievers at their disposal if Gray runs into trouble. These are the main concerns, but those worries are somewhat alleviated when considering every other factor in this Game.

With the series tied at 1-1, Minnesota shouldn’t be overly antsy to get to their bullpen, especially considering they have another pivotal game to play tomorrow. Obviously, all hands are on deck in the playoffs, but Minnesota doesn’t want to allow Houston to see individual bullpen pieces more than they need to. Gray has shown an elite ability to generate quick outs, and part of this is thanks to his 61.0% first pitch strike rate. While not an elite mark, it is above average, and Gray’s highest percentage since 2017. The reason this is key is the Astros have the league’s 3rd highest first pitch swing rate at 33.6% this season. Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena have the 11th and 12th highest rates respectively while Jose Altuve would rank 29th if qualified. Other guys like Yainer Diaz and Mauricio Dubon also rank highly in that category on the off chance one of them sees the lineup.

Active Houston batters have a combined sample of 144 PA against Sonny all time with a .679 OPS and just 1 home run against the right-hander. Gray faced this Houston lineup twice this year in the regular season. His first outing resulted in 7 innings of 1-run ball, recording those 21 outs on 98 pitches due to a season-high 13 strikeouts. The next matchup resulted in only 3 strikeouts, but he was more efficient with 6 complete frames across only 79 pitches. Today, we need just 15 outs and Gray will get a chance to do so in front of his home crowd. One final noteworthy aspect of this game is that Ryan Jeffers is the starting catcher. Minnesota starters have better numbers across the board when Jeffers catches compared to Christian Vasquez thanks to what appears to be superior pitch framing and game calling. In 92.1 innings with Jeffers this season, Gray has allowed a .208 batting average and .578 OPS. Look for the veteran arm to get through 5 or more innings in a crucial Game 3 matchup with the defending champions.