Best MLB prop bet for today, 5/20: Rangers score early off Kyle Freeland

Today’s MLB Games will take place across the league as all 30 teams are in play. With early afternoon Games on the docket, baseball fans can sit back and enjoy an all-day buffet of action. At 4:05 pm ET my focus will shift to the Rockies vs Rangers Game as there is a team prop I like in that matchup. Let’s dive in!

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Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

The Texas Rangers continue to crush left-handed pitching this season. On the year they rank 9th in SLG and 4th in wOBA and have a wRC+ of 123 against southpaw pitching. Each of the last 10 left-handed starting pitchers to face the Rangers has allowed 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings. Overall, Texas scores a league-leading 3.64 runs per first 5 innings, and at home that mark spikes to 4.14. They also draw walks at the 4th-highest rate against left-handers while posting the 6th-highest hard-hit rate.

On Tuesday when I took this same bet, I assumed Corey Seager would make his return to the Rangers lineup. He didn’t return then, but the Texas offense was still able to produce. An opposite-field 2-run home run by MLB RBI leader Adolis Garcia pushed Texas over the top in the 4th inning of that game, winning our bet. Seager has since returned to the lineup, recording 3 RBI in his first 2 games back. The all-star shortstop’s presence lengthens an already deep lineup.

Today’s projected lineup has 8 batters with a league-average or better wOBA against LHP since the beginning of last season. Seager has the most head-to-head History against today’s starter Kyle Freeland. In 22 PA Seager has posted a 1.446 OPS while getting on base 14 times.

Freeland has had solid returns this season, especially of late. In 18 innings this month he has allowed only 2 earned runs combined. That being said, those matchups were against Milwaukee (30th in wOBA vs LHP), Philadelphia (23rd), and Pittsburgh who was in the midst of a horrible stretch offensively. Despite Freeland cutting last season’s 4.53 ERA to 3.16 so far, his FIP has actually gone from 4.21 to 4.54. A .257 BABIP is well below his .304 career average, which makes little sense given the disposal of the shift. Freeland has also benefited from his 2nd-highest LOB% of his career. His 23.7% CSW% is the lowest mark since his rookie season, as is his chase rate. A 57.4% first-pitch strike rate sets him behind in counts and that isn’t where you want to be when the fastest average velocity on any of your pitches is still under 89 mph.

The southpaw uses a 5-pitch mix with each one receiving at least 10% usage. His sinker, slider, curveball, 4-seamer and changeup make up his repertoire in order of usage. Texas is a tough matchup for him, as the Rangers grade out very well against Freeland’s portfolio of pitches. In terms of run value/100 this season Texas ranks 6th against the sinker, 3rd against the slider, 19th against the curveball, 14th against the 4-seamer, and 5th against the changeup. The sinker and slider are Freeland’s pitches that get hit the hardest, and I am look for Texas to continue to roll.

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