Best MLB prop bet for today, 3/30: Reds take on Patrick Corbin at home | Pickswise

I am very excited and thankful to be back with Pickswise for my 3rd season of player prop articles. I look forward to sharing my MLB thoughts and bets with you each Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday for the next 7 months!

Before we get into my best player prop bet for today, be sure to check out our full MLB predictions for today’s slate.

Patrick Corbin (WAS) over 5.5 hits allowed (+110)

Odds available at Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, and ESPN Sportsbook at time of publishing. Risking 1u to win 1.1u.

Patrick Corbin has been one of my favorite pitchers to bet against in the past few seasons. With his season debut coming on the road in such a hitter-friendly park, I see no reason to ignore this price on a prop I like. The left-handed starter has posted an xERA of 5.62 or higher in each of the last 3 campaigns while seeing sharp decline in his strikeout numbers. His 210 hits (1.26 H/IP) allowed in the past two years have been accompanied by an xBA over .300, ranking him in just the 1st percentile.

He tends to fill the zone with just a 7.2% BB% last season, and with his relatively high per-start pitch count of 91.3 the left-hander allowed 6 or more hits in 21 of his 32 starts. His final spring training start saw 86 pitches after 74 in the previous outing. Corbin’s 2023 debut spanned only 3 innings of work, but he tossed 85 pitches with 7 hits allowed. I expect around 85-95 pitches in this outing depending on performance. Corbin has added a cutter in the offseason but still allowed 13 hits and 6 earned runs in 7.2 innings during those final 2 outings. Spring training numbers can be deceiving, especially with veterans who are testing new things out, but I am not here to talk myself out of a Patrick Corbin fade. 

The lefty faces a Cincinnati offense that is missing some pieces to begin the year but is still stocked with depth in their lineup. The Reds scored 8 runs in Game 1 of the series with 10 hits including 7 off of starter Josiah Gray. They can roll out 8 RHB which is Corbin’s weaker split, and they benefit from playing their home Games in Great American Ballpark. For a late March Game, the weather looks solid with temperatures in the low 70’s and I am willing to bite on this plus-money price.