2024 NBA Playoff Predictions: Eastern & Western Conference Picks and NBA Finals predictions

The 2024 NBA Playoffs are in full gear, but even as the second round unfolds there are still far more questions than answers. Will the Denver Nuggets shake off the Wolves and win back-to-back titles? Will the upstart Thunder reach the Finals ahead of schedule? Can the Celtics keep on rolling without Kristaps Porzingis?

We turned to our Covers NBA experts for their insights and they didn't hold back! Check out their NBA picks for the winners of the Eastern and Western Conference Finals, the NBA Finals, and the NBA Finals MVP award below.

NBA Playoffs picks

Writer	Western Conference Finals winner	Eastern Conference Finals Winner	NBA Finals Winner	NBA Finals MVP
Rory Breasail	Nuggets	Celtics	Nuggets	Nikola Jokic
Andrew Caley	Thunder	Celtics	Thunder	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Douglas Farmer	Timberwolves	Celtics	Timberwolves	Anthony Edwards
Jason Logan	Nuggets	Celtics	Celtics	Jayson Tatum
Jon Metler	Mavericks	Celtics	Celtics	Jayson Tatum
Ryan Murphy	Nuggets	Celtics	Nuggets	Nikola Jokic
Rohit Ponnaiya	Nuggets	Celtics	Celtics	Jayson Tatum
AJ Salah	Nuggets	Celtics	Nuggets	Nikola Jokic

NBA Playoffs exert analysis

Rory Breasail: Denver stays on top

Western Conference Finals winner: Denver Nuggets
Eastern Conference Finals winner: Boston Celtics
NBA Finals winner: Denver Nuggets
NBA Finals MVP winner: Nikola Jokic

To be the king, you have to beat the king. This pick is less about what the Denver Nuggets have proven this season and more about no other team making an overwhelming case to supplant them.

The Nuggets’ season-long point differential doesn’t scream repeat, but we’ve seen how dangerous this team is at its best. Nobody in the NBA has shown even a workable plan to prevent Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray from generating quality shots in clutch time, and with Peyton Watson in the playoff rotation their defensive ceiling is higher than last season's championship team. 

Andrew Caley: Thunder boom

Western Conference winner: Oklahoma City Thunder
Eastern Conference winner: Boston Celtics
NBA Finals winner: Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Have you seen these other predictions? So boring. Let’s mix it up by picking… a No. 1 seed? Well, some feel the Oklahoma City Thunder won’t go far in the playoffs because of their inexperience. But the Thunder are legit.

Here are the teams that rank in the Top 5 in both offensive and defensive rating: the Celtics, and the Thunder. End of list. They have an MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And have proven they can beat top teams all season. OKC is a combined 13-5 against the other Top 5 teams in the West. And hell, they went 1-1 against the Celtics. The loss? SGA didn’t play. Roll Thunder!

Douglas Farmer: Timberwolves knock off Celtics

Western Conference Finals winner: Minnesota Timberwolves
Eastern Conference Finals winner: Boston Celtics
NBA Finals winner: Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA Finals MVP winner: Anthony Edwards

When healthy, the Denver Nuggets are the most talented team in the NBA and one that can match nearly any playing style. But they are not healthy. Needing to actually put in effort to get by the Lakers doomed the rest of Denver’s playoff hopes, putting too much stress on Jamal Murray’s already balky calf.

That opened the door for the Minnesota Timberwolves to blow through the West. Denver may have the starting talent and the experience in the clutch, but one injury mitigates all of that. Meanwhile, Minnesota has enough depth to sustain a two-month run, and the Timberwolves are starting to believe in that run.
That belief is leading to more and more confidence, the one thing opponents need to keep Anthony Edwards from building further. Combining the Wolves’ relentless defense with locker room confidence should lead to the first title in franchise history.

Jason Logan: This season belongs to the Celtics

Western Conference Finals winner: Denver Nuggets
Eastern Conference Finals winner: Boston Celtics
NBA Finals winner: Boston Celtics
NBA Finals MVP winner: Jayson Tatum

The NBA futures are forecasting this matchup and why not? The biggest threats to Boston in the East are all banged up or playing without their stars. As for Denver, I just don’t see anyone in the West being able to hang with the defending champs for a seven-game series (be it in talent, experience, or durability). The Celtics retooled the roster in the offseason with postseason planning in mind and are a much better fit to fight the Nuggets in the finals. Boston has more tread on the tires and, as much as the Lakers fan in me hates to see another banner in the Garden, this is the Celtics’ season.

Jon Metler: Celtics hang banner No. 18

Western Conference Finals winner: Dallas Mavericks
Eastern Conference Finals winner: Boston Celtics
NBA Finals winner: Boston Celtics
NBA Finals MVP winner: Jayson Tatum

If we're picking regardless of the odds, I'm going with the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals. They have the easiest path to the Conference Finals, assuming the Philadelphia 76ers take care of business in the Play-In Tournament. The 76ers, New York Knicks, and Milwaukee Bucks would all be on the other side of the bracket. The Denver Nuggets' path through the Western Conference is a lot more challenging. I'd be stunned if the Celtics aren't the team representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.

The Celtics have the best starting five in the NBA, and they have been able to manage everyone's minutes throughout the regular season while capturing the No. 1 seed with ease, so they should be Healthier than most teams when they reach the NBA Finals. If everyone remains Healthy, especially Kristaps Porzingis, it's hard to imagine anyone defeating the Celtics in a best-of-seven series.

Ryan Murphy: Mile High mastery

Western Conference Finals winner: Denver Nuggets
Eastern Conference Finals winner: Boston Celtics
NBA Finals winner: Denver Nuggets
NBA Finals MVP winner: Nikola Jokic

The 2023-24 Nuggets are about to prove that sequels can be just as satisfying – if not better – than the original. Not only did the defending champs win four more games this season than a year before, but they also posted a better point differential and were far stingier on defense, limiting opponents to just 109.6 points per game. That’s especially impressive in an era where most teams have seemingly already scored 100 points before the opening tip. 

The Nuggets also happen to possess the Game’s most unstoppable weapon in Nikola Jokic, a soon-to-be three-time MVP who dictates the pace of the Game better than any big man in NBA History. There’s no way that anyone as slow and lumbering as Jokic should be this effective, and yet the Serbian center continues to pick teams apart with his exceptional basketball IQ and peerless passing. The Celtics, and others, will put up a fight, but Jokic will wear them all down until the Nuggets are the last team standing once again.

Rohit Ponnaiya: Going Green

Western Conference Finals winner: Nuggets
Eastern Conference Finals winner: Celtics
NBA Finals winner: Celtics
NBA Finals MVP winner: Jayson Tatum

This is about as chalky as it gets, but the NBA is a league where the cream often rises to the top. The Celtics have been easily the best team in the league all season while the defending champion Nuggets have the league's top player in Nikola Jokic along with the perfect supporting cast to complement his skillset. The Celtics are deep, talented, and experienced, and have the highest-rated offense in the league along with the second-best defense.

The Nuggets will make it out of the Western Conference with the young Timberwolves and Thunder experiencing some growing pains. However, Denver won't be able to able to beat Boston and not having the home-court advantage in a hypothetical finals matchup could be the deciding factor.

AJ Salah: Denver gets it done

Western Conference Finals winner: Denver Nuggets
Eastern Conference Finals winner: Boston Celtics
NBA Finals winner: Denver Nuggets
NBA Finals MVP winner: Nikola Jokic

Chalky pick, sure, but I think only contrarian logic can land you at another Finals matchup when there are so many question marks with pretty much every other contender in both conferences.

Once we arrive here, the Celtics — despite their undeniable top-end talent — simply have no answer for Jokic, despite throwing the kitchen sink at him defensively for two meetings he utterly bludgeoned them in this season. Jamal Murray’s also proven himself as a big-moment player who levels up at the highest stakes.

Meanwhile, Boston’s led by a dude who’s oscillated between brilliance and disappearing in big playoff Games, and coached by guy whose postseason acumen drew all kinds of scrutiny last season. The Celtics are the sexier pick, but the Nuggets — who’ve done the damn thing before — should be the more dependable one here.

NBA Finals exact result

• Celtics to beat Timberwolves: +300
• Celtics to beat Thunder: +400
• Timberwolves to beat Celtics: +550
• Thunder to beat Celtics: +950
• Celtics to beat Mavericks: +1,000

Ways to bet on the 2024 NBA Playoffs

Game odds

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Playoff series odds

Make futures bets on who will win each series in the NBA Playoffs and how many games they will win. We bring you updated odds for every NBA playoff series.

NBA Finals futures

See which teams have the best odds of winning the NBA Finals.

NBA picks

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Recent NBA Finals Matchups 

Over the past decade, a handful of teams have dominated the NBA Finals. In fact, with the exception of the Toronto Raptors and the San Antonio Spurs, all the teams below are in the 2024 NBA Playoffs or Play-In Tournament, speaking to the organizational smarts (and pursestrings) of these elite franchises. 

Year	East Team	West Team	Champion
2023	Miami Heat	Denver Nuggets	Nuggets
2022	Boston Celtics	Golden State Warriors	Warriors
2021	Milwaukee Bucks	Phoenix Suns	Bucks
2020	Miami Heat	Los Angeles Lakers	Lakers
2019	Toronto Raptors	Golden State Warriors	Warriors
2018	Cleveland Cavaliers	Golden State Warriors	Warriors
2017	Cleveland Cavaliers	Golden State Warriors	Warriors
2016	Cleveland Cavaliers	Golden State Warriors	Cavaliers
2015	Cleveland Cavaliers	Golden State Warriors	Warriors
2014	Miami Heat	San Antonio Spurs	Spurs
2013	Miami Heat	San Antonio Spurs	Heat