Wild vs Avalanche Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NHL

The Minnesota Wild are in a tough spot following their 5-2 win in Arizona last night, as they have a quick turnaround and face the No.1 home team, the Colorado Avalanche, who are heavy NHL odds favorites and have added at the deadline. 

On the heels of back-to-back four-point outings, and an implied team total of around 4.0 goals, does Nathan MacKinnon continue to separate himself in the point race with another multi-point effort?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Wild vs. Avalanche for Friday, March 8. 

Wild vs Avalanche odds

Wild vs Avalanche predictions

Colorado enters tonight with the best home record in hockey at 25-6 SU. Their 4.35 goals per game on home ice pace the league substantially, and they’re winning games on average by 1.77 goals at Ball Arena. The Avalanche are taking advantage of the altitude more this year it seems, and with the Wild coming from Arizona last night, this is about as hard of a spot for any traveling team.

Nathan MacKinnon is fresh off his second straight four-point night and leads all NHL scorers by three points entering tonight. Nikita Kucherov and Connor McDavid only managed a single point last night, so Nate Mac can distance himself from the pack tonight and push for his first-ever MVP.

MacKinnon has recorded at least one point in all 31 home games this season. Wayne Gretzky has the single-season record at 40 games. Of the 31 home games MacKinnon has played, he has had a multi-point effort in 21, one of those which works out to a 68% hit rate on his Over 1.5-point prop.

Looking at the price, he is currently -110 to record two or more points after it opened at -105 this morning. There's still plenty of room for this to get shorter. On Wednesday vs. the Wings, this Over opened at +100 and closed at -140. I’d take the Over to -125 tonight.

The No.1 home offense also gets a great scoring matchup tonight vs. the Wild, who will likely turn to goalie Filip Gustavsson. The likely starter has given up 12 goals over his last three starts and has stopped just 62 of 74 shots. Considering the Avs put up 54 shots and seven goals vs. the Wings on Friday, it could be another one-sided affair for a team heading to elevation.

The Avs have faced five teams this year in Minnesota’s position — going to Colorado on the second game of a back-to-back. In those five games, the Avs are 5-0 and have outscored their opponents 25 to seven, and no team has scored more than two goals. Colorado could flirt with six goals tonight, and MacKinnon will be there for the majority of them. 

My best bet: Nathan MacKinnon  Over 1.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

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Wild vs Avalanche same-game parlay

Let's load up on the trio who could actually see more minutes as the Avs are bringing in some new bodies and those workloads might be scaled back initially. These three have combined for 19 points over the last two games, where the Avs have put up 12 total goals. I love the Colorado team total Over 3.5, and if this club is putting up four or more, these three will combine for the majority of those points. 

All three of these skaters rank in the Top 10 in the league in points per Game at home, led by MacKinon at 2.23 points per match. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wild vs Avalanche moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Avs have moved significantly on the moneyline from -200 to as short as -235 in some places. The total has also started to tick up on the Over 6.5. Colorado closed as a -180 home favorite vs. the Wings on Wednesday, so it’s safe to say at -230ish, the back-to-back is very priced-in here. 

Colorado just has such a big advantage vs. teams that don’t have time to acclimate to the elevation, as its domination over teams who are on the second game of a back-to-back show — 5-0 SU with 25 goals for vs. seven against.

The Avs have also added to their team with trade additions of Casey Mittelstadt and defenseman Sean Walker. Communication is always an issue with acquiring new bodies, but this is still a Colorado team led by MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar. The trio has combined for 19 total points and seven goals over the team’s current home stand, where it’s potted 12 goals over two games.

On the other side, Minnesota could be without 20-minute-per-Game D-man Jacob Middleton, as he missed last night's Game in Arizona with a UBI.  

I don’t love the Avs when they hit the road, as they’re being priced as a team with a huge home-ice advantage, but at Ball Arena, it’s impossible not to back them. If you don’t like Colorado in regulation at around -135/-140, the team total Over 3.5 at the same price is also an option.

A reason for that is the play of starting goalie Alex Georgiev, who owns a .902 save percentage since the start of January. But just like his team, his home splits are much better than on the road. At Ball Arena, he has a 2.51 GAA and a .909 SV% compared to a 3.24 GAA and a .892 SV% on the road. 

Gustavsson will likely go for the other side today. He has been shaky of late, going 4-5 SU over his last 10 games but posting an ugly .880 SV%.

Looking at the total, Colorado has the No.1 home offense at 4.35 goals per game but also ranks sixth with a 2.58 GAA. The Wild have a middle-of-the-pack offense with nothing standing out in terms of power play and 5-on-5 metrics. Mats Zuccarello is back in the lineup, but this is still a top-heavy offense that is easier to match up against when it's on the road. 

There should also be something said about having to play Arizona and then the Avs. The difference in the level of competition between those two clubs is massive. 

I’m all Colorado today and think a 2-point stack of MacKinnon and Rantanen at +280 is a decent play if you’re looking for bigger odds.

Wild vs Avalanche betting trend to know

The Avalanche have hit the 1P moneyline in 49 of their last 91 games (+12.85 Units / 9% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Avalanche.

Wild vs Avalanche game info

Wild vs Avalanche latest injuries

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