Where does Rory McIlroy have to finish at the 2024 DP World Tour Championship to win the Race to Dubai?

Rory McIlroy has endured something of a frustrating 2024 season. Although he has three wins to his name on the PGA and DP World Tours, he has finished second (or tied for second) on four occasions, gifted the US Open to Bryson DeChambeau as a result of a late collapse, spectacularly missed the cut at the British Open and only just missed out on a medal at the Olympic Games in Paris.

Yet the Northern Irishman will very likely end the year on a high by winning the DP World Tour’s Race to Dubai, which will be decided at this week’s DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Golf Estates’ Earth Course in the UAE.

Although McIlroy plays principally on the PGA Tour, he has done sufficiently well in the 11 DP World Tour events he has played this season to have a handsome lead at the top of the rankings going into the final tournament.

The 35-year-old can only be overtaken by one man, South Africa’s Thriston Lawrence, who notably finished fourth at this year’s Open Championship at Royal Troon. And for to happen, there will have to be a spectacular turnaround in Dubai.

How Rory McIlory can win - and lose - the 2024 Race to Dubai

McIlroy holds a lead of 1,785.02 points at the top of the rankings, with 2,000 available to this week’s winner. The four-time major champion will win the 2024 Race to Dubai if he finishes in 11th place (alone) or better, regardless or what Lawrence achieves.

The South African can therefore only pull off an unlikely comeback if he wins on the Earth Course and McIlroy is tied for 11th or lower. Lawrence has won four times on the DP World Tour, although none of those victories have come this season, in which he has posted 10 top 10 finishes.

If McIlroy prevails, he will equal Seve Ballesteros’ tally of six Race to Dubai/Order of Merit wins, but will still be two behind Colin Montgomerie, who won eight times between 1993 and 2005.

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