The Toronto Blue Jays (36-43) and Boston Red Sox (43-37) close out a 3-game AL East series as they meet Wednesday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Boston leads 4-1
Toronto lost Monday’s series opener 7-6, but bounced back with a 9-4 victory Tuesday. The 9 runs marked the Blue Jays’ most in a game since May 26, and the win snapped a 7-game losing streak.
The Red Sox head into Wednesday’s contest looking to avoid a 2nd straight loss for what would be the 1st time since June 7-8. Since June 12, Boston is 10-3.
Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Yariel Rodriguez vs. RHP Kutter Crawford
Rodriguez (0-2, 5.94 ERA) is making his 6th start. He has a 1.92 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 16 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 1 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 7-1 loss at Cleveland Guardians Friday
- Has never faced the Red Sox
- Last starts was his 1st MLB start since April; was out with a back injury and pitched at Triple-A from May 21-June 16
Crawford (3-7, 3.59 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 92 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-2 loss at Cincinnati Reds Friday
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-1, 4.58 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 19 H, 6 BB, 14 K in 3 starts
- Has allowed a .774 OPS this month and a .762 OPS across 11 career starts in June
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Blue Jays at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Blue Jays +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Red Sox -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-150) | Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 6, Blue Jays 4
Moneyline
Toronto is 22-32 against teams playing .500 ball or better.
The Red Sox have somewhat underplayed their 4.68 runs per Game and 4.13 RPG allowed, and there are some indicators in the analytics that suggest the latter figure could and should improve by a significant margin. So, while Boston has played .537 ball to date, it may be more of a .580 club.
Second starts back off IL time are always a bold caution flag. Rodriguez has had control issues, and he’s catching a Red Sox offense cranking out big numbers of late (.855 OPS since June 12).
Crawford has been undone by the long ball in recent starts. A 27.6% HR/f over his last 4 starts says perhaps unfairly so. He faces a Toronto club that owns all of a .362 SLG since June 3.
TAKE THE RED SOX (-155).
Run line/Against the spread
Boston is a lean, and a high-scoring game figures to be an under-bet proposition in this match-up. But the return here is just shy of a real value point. PASS.
Over/Under
Toronto-Boston games over the last 3 years have seen the Over go 11-6-1. That includes an 8-2 mark in the last 10 meetings at Fenway.
Both sides tote recent-week Over trends into this series finale. On a warmed-up, wind-out night in Boston, BACK THE OVER 9.5 (-115).
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