The NFL’s only remaining undefeated team, the Kansas City Chiefs (7-0), hosts the injury-riddled Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) during the Week 9 edition of Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Buccaneers vs. Chiefs odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Kansas City dispatched its AFC West-rival Las Vegas Raiders 27-20 in Week 8 to preserve this unblemished campaign. Though he’s not lighting up the boxscores, Patrick Mahomes is doing just enough to complement one of the NFL’s top defenses and sustain momentum for a possible Super Bowl 3-peat.
Conversely, the Bucs have lost 3 of their past 4 games as injuries mount on the offensive side — the latest downfall being last weekend’s 31-26 defeat against fellow NFC Southers the Atlanta Falcons.
WR Chris Godwin‘s season-ending dislocated ankle injury was followed by WR Mike Evans‘ hamstring injury that likely will keep him out through the Week 11 bye. However much you believe in QB Baker Mayfield’s ascension, a prime-time assignment in one of the toughest road environments against the 2-time defending champions is a challenge.
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Buccaneers at Chiefs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Sunday at 6:23 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Buccaneers +350 (bet $100 to win $350) | Chiefs -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Buccaneers +9 (-110) | Chiefs -9 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Buccaneers at Chiefs key injuries
Buccaneers
- WR Mike Evans (hamstring) out
- RB Bucky Irving (toe) questionable
- WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring) questionable
- WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring) questionable
- S Antoine Winfield (foot) questionable
Chiefs
- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) out
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Buccaneers at Chiefs picks and predictions
Prediction
Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 20
Moneyline
The Buccaneers are built to remain competitive even without a pair of star offensive playmakers, so Vegas has not awarded them overwhelming ML value.
Betting on any moneyline juice above (-200) doesn’t entice me. KC (-450) … beyond a gimme parlay leg, who cares?
PASS.
Against the spread
Expect TB to reverse the 2-4 ATS trend across its past 6 games. Market perception centered around a hostile trip to Arrowhead Stadium has helped balloon the spread to nearly 10 points.
Failure to cover against Las Vegas dropped the Chiefs to 5-2 ATS. The Raiders make Baker’s Bucs look like Tom Brady’s.
Tampa Bay boasts enough weapons on offense, including emerging TE Cade Otton and a talented backfield with headliners Rachaad White and Bucky Irving (if active), to keep a closer-than-expected pace with Kelce and co. and avoid a blowout defeat.
Expect a back-door cover from Tampa Bay in the closing minutes.
BET BUCS +9 (-110).
Over/Under
The absences of Godwin and Evans would, on paper, limit Tampa Bay’s ability to compete with the likes of Kelce and the pass-catching Chiefs crew.
While the Chiefs are a mere 3-4 on the Over, the Bucs rank among the top clubs at 6-2 O/U and surpassed their Week 8 total against Atlanta during Evans’ first missed contest.
Thanks to OC Liam Coen’s adaptability for Mayfield’s NFLVMplan, both teams provide a clear path to putting up plenty of points.
The Bucs offer the league’s friendliest pass defense, which should elevate Mahomes. Plus, my call on a last-ditch Buccaneers scoring charge to hit ATS also nudges me to bet optimistically on the total.
BET OVER 45.5 (-110).
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