NBA

Spurs vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks & NBA Odds

Published

3d ago

Oct 24, 2024 / 7848 Views

Evan Walker

The San Antonio Spurs open the 2024-25 season against the defending Western Conference champs when they travel to American Airlines Arena to face the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday.

Luka Doncic opens the season as the MVP odds favorite, and my Spurs vs. Mavericks predictions expect him to stuff the stat sheet tonight. Read my NBA picks below for more.

Spurs vs Mavericks prediction

My best bet
Luka Doncic to record a triple-double (+280 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The best bet for this one comes in with home run odds, but this is a well-calculated risk with a big potential payout. Luka Doncic finished as one of three players in the Association with at least 20 triple-doubles last season (21), and I’m betting on him logging another in this Dallas Mavericks season opener.

Doncic’s stat-stuffing has been a thing of beauty. He’s racked up 52 triple-doubles in 267 games over the last four seasons, good for a 19.5% market or one in every five games. That mark shifts to 22.8% over his last two seasons. He logged a triple-double in last season’s opener, and he’s averaged a healthy 29.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.0 assists over his last four openers.

Luka compiled a triple-double in three of four matchups against the Spurs last season, but his 2023-24 success wasn’t a one-off. He has 77 career triple-doubles to his credit, and seven of them have come against the San Antonio Spurs.

That’s his most against any single opponent, and he’s done it in 20 career matchups. That’s good for 35% of his games against the Spurs, but the implied probability of this +280 prop is a paltry 26.32%. We’re grabbing this one straight out of the bargain bin.

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Spurs vs Mavericks same-game parlay (SGP)

Luka Doncic to record a triple-double

Mavericks moneyline

Victor Wembanyama Under 42.5 points + rebounds + assists

+643 at FanDuel

The spread feels appropriate, but this is opening night, and I’m not sure what Dallas will look like after its Finals loss. Instead, I’ll anchor this SGP with Mavericks moneyline.

Dallas finished 10th in offensive rating, 17th in defensive rating, and 15th in net rating last season compared to 26th, 21st, and 24th for San Antonio, respectively. Dallas swept the season series 4-0, and while the Spurs kept the score within seven in both games at San Antonio, Dallas won by at least 23 in both home games.

Meanwhile, Victor Wembanyama's lines are set a bit too high for my liking. He averaged a healthy 35.9 PRA last season, but he hit the Over on this line just 15 times in 71 appearances.

The Rookie of the Year posted 17.7 points, 8.3 boards, and 3.3 dimes in three matchups with Dallas and stayed Under in all three. The Mavs have two 7-footers in Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford to limit the 7-foot-4 center, and Dallas’ defense should be keyed in on Wemby, as he’s the top offensive option for a team without much firepower.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spurs vs Mavericks odds

Spurs vs Mavericks live odds

Get the latest Spurs vs. Mavericks NBA odds.

Spurs vs Mavericks opening odds

Spread: San Antonio +7.5 | Dallas -7.5
Moneyline: San Antonio +240 | Dallas -295
Over/Under: Over 229.5 | Under 229.5

Spurs vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite finishing with a 22-60 SU record, San Antonio covered the spread in 44 of 82 games last season.
Dallas finished with a combined ATS record of 60-43-1 in 2023-24 through 104 regular season and playoff games.
The Spurs went 39-41-2 to the Under last season but hit the Over in 37 of 73 games as the underdog.
The Mavericks went Over in just 45 of 104 games last season, including a 15-22 O/U mark as the home favorite.

Spurs vs Mavericks trend

The Spurs finished last season with a 22-60 record, including a 10-31 mark on the road. The Spurs didn’t pile up too many wins, but they finished with a 22-19 ATS record on the road, a 20-19 ATS record as road dogs, and a 37-36 ATS record as the outright underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Mavericks.