Senators vs Flames Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NHL Game

The Ottawa Senators host the Calgary Flames at the Canadian Tire Centre on Monday, November 25, and the clubs are entering on complete opposite runs.

Ottawa has dropped five straight, while Calgary hits the highway following four consecutive wins at home, and our top Flames vs. Senators predictions are calling for a low-scoring game in the Nation’s Capital tonight. 

I explain the lack of expected goals with my NHL picks ahead of tonight's puck drop at 7:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.

Senators vs Flames prediction

My Senators pick
Under 6.0 (-110 at Pinnacle)

My Senators analysis

Even with five consecutive losses — four on home ice — the Ottawa Senators have surrendered the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 at the Canadian Tire Centre. The Sens also rank sixth in the league with a 53.8 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 at home, and their 10th-ranked 53.1 xGF% is also solid, so the underlying play has been there.

Ottawa has just posted the third-lowest team save percentage (.897) to allow the fifth-most goals per 60 minutes (3.26) at 5-on-5 at home.

With the Calgary Flames sporting a 3-3-3 road record while scoring the seventh-fewest goals per 60 at 5-on-5 on the road (1.9) and sixth-fewest goals per road game (2.33), this is a good spot for Ottawa to batten down the hatches and hold an opponent in check.

Of course, the Flames are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, and lights-out goaltending has been their calling card.

Calgary has surrendered the second-fewest goals per 60 at 5-on-5 (1.7) and eighth-fewest goals per game (2.67) this season, after all. Flames netminders are pacing the NHL with a .943 team save percentage at 5-on-5, too.

Returning to the Ottawa crease, No. 1 Linus Ullmark has flashed the high-end play that paved the way to a Vezina Trophy two years ago. He's also been plagued by inconsistency. Obviously, jumping ship to Ottawa after three solid seasons with the Boston Bruins has reared its ugly head, but the pendulum has still swung too far.

After all, there has been strong 5-on-5 play from the Sens on home ice, so Ullmark maintaining an .881 save percentage, 3.10 GAA, and -0.12 goals saved above average per 60 minutes is unlikely. 

More saves are coming, and the Flames don’t have a deep lineup of scorers jumping the boards.

Senators vs Flames Odds analysis

Bettors are clearly buying the desperation narrative and backing the Sens' solid underlying numbers because Ottawa has been steamed from an opening -145 to -161 at Pinnacle as of Monday morning. 

This total isn’t going to last at 6.0, and I still like the Under at 5.5. Calgary has gone Under the number in eight of its past 10 games and, as noted, Ottawa has positive regression coming between the pipes. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Senators vs Flames odds

Senators vs Flames live odds

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Senators vs Flames opening odds

• Puck line: Ottawa -1.5 (+176) | Calgary +1.5 (-207)
• Moneyline: Ottawa -145 | Calgary +128
• Over/Under: Over 6 (+100) | Under 6 (-114)

Odds courtesy of Pinnacle

Senators vs Flames trend

The Calgary Flames have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 37 away Games (+0.80 Units / 2% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Flames.

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