NBA

Ranking the 10 biggest games of the last week of the NBA regular season

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1y ago

Apr 04, 2023 / 6013 Views

We've reached the final week of the 2022-23 NBA regular season and there's still plenty to sort out. The Western Conference is still so crowded that, mathematically speaking, the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans could technically still land in eight different slots in the final standings. The Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves aren't far behind at seven. There isn't a single team in either conference that has clinched a specific seed.

In other words, there is plenty of relevant basketball left to be played over the next six days. So which games do you need to tune in for? Here are the 10 most important games of the final week of the season.

10. Celtics at 76ers, April 4

This game probably won't matter much in the standings. There are at least two games worth of separation between each of the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference as of this writing, so barring something surprising, Boston will be the No. 2 seed in the East and Philadelphia will be No. 3. However, this game matters for two other reasons.

First, it's probably the last genuine showcase for Joel Embiid's MVP candidacy, and after he missed last week's showdown with co-favorite Nikola Jokic, he's going to need all of the big wins he can get. Second, and more importantly, Boston has been Embiid's kryptonite for years now. The 76ers have lost all three head-to-head bouts with the Celtics this season, and Embiid has lost to Boston in the postseason twice. These teams are on a collision course for a second-round war, and Philadelphia would probably like to send a message before that series arrives.

9. Blazers at Grizzlies, April 4

Despite Portland's historic upset over Minnesota on Sunday, this Game is probably going to be a walkover. The Grizzlies should win comfortably, and if they do, they will clinch at least the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, and assuming Denver takes care of Business against Houston, they will be locked into No. 2 no matter what. At that point, Sacramento would also lock into No. 3 with a win in any of their final four Games or a Suns loss in any of Phoenix's last four Games.

Now, setting the top three matters a good deal, but the real importance here is what that would mean for the teams below Memphis and Sacramento in the bracket. The Grizzlies still have games coming against the Pelicans and Thunder. The Kings still play the Mavericks and Warriors (and their Tuesday game, which runs concurrently with Grizzlies-Blazers, is against the Pelicans). Both of these teams have a real chance to influence the rest of the Western Conference playoff field if they decide to rest players down the stretch. A Memphis win on Tuesday makes that far likelier.

8. Kings at Mavericks, April 5

This is a game that the Mavericks should probably win. It's a back-to-back for the Kings. It's in Dallas. Sacramento might not even have anything to play for. But... how many games have the Mavericks lost lately that we expected them to win? Once you lose back-to-back games against the Hornets, you lose the benefit of the doubt. Dallas is so desperate right now that there are even rumors that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving could get shut down for the final three games. Dallas still has paths of sneaking into the play-in round, but the Mavericks will need help. None of that will matter if they don't help themselves.

7. Nuggets at Suns, April 6

This is a measuring stick game. Denver is going to be the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and Phoenix is going to be the No. 4 seed, and it's not even clear that Nikola Jokic will play. When these two teams faced off on Friday, Denver sat its three best players. But the Suns swept the Nuggets out of the postseason two years ago. Phoenix is undefeated with Kevin Durant in the lineup, but all six of those wins have come against teams currently below .500 except for that victory over Denver's B-team. These are the two Western Conference favorites. Both of them could probably use a tuneup against proper competition. This game might not mean anything. But if there's any chance they take it seriously, it has to make this list.

6. Pelicans at Timberwolves, April 9

Alright, now we've hit the nitty gritty. Minnesota is two losses behind No. 8 New Orleans, so in all likelihood, the Timberwolves aren't rising above the No. 9 seed. However, their next two games are against the Nets and Spurs, both of which are winnable, and then they close at home against New Orleans. The winner of that game also picks up the head-to-head tiebreaker over the other, and given the extremely difficult schedule ahead of the Pelicans, it's likely that New Orleans will lose a game or two before this matchup. If that is the case, there's a reasonable chance that the winner of this game winds up in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup while the loser will have to win two play-in games just to reach the playoffs.

5. Thunder at Warriors, April 4

If the Thunder sweep their three final Games, they reach the play-in automatically. Even if they win two, it would take a three-way tie to knock them out thanks to their tiebreaker over Dallas. The Thunder have two pretty winnable Games on their slate: a road trip to Utah to face the depleted Jazz and a home Game against the Grizzlies on Sunday in which Memphis will almost certainly rest starters. Those Games should be enough to get the Thunder into the play-in round, but, well, the Thunder aren't too far away from the Mavericks when it comes to blowing winnable Games. They lost to the injury-riddled Pacers and Hornets last week. A win over the Warriors would not only set them up to stay in the top 10, but would prove they plan to comPete once they get there.

4. Warriors at Kings, April 7

It might seem strange to rank this game in the top four considering the possibility that Sacramento has clinched its seed by Friday, but remember, the Kings might want to manipulate the bracket a bit to ensure the proper opponent. The No. 6 seed is the most coveted slot in the entire Western Conference right now because of Sacramento's inexperience and defense, but if the Kings prefer a certain opponent, they can at least use this game as an opportunity to tilt the scales in whichever direction they'd like.

Draymond Green has already made it clear that he wants his Warriors to face Sacramento in the first round, and while he claimed that preference was based on travel, that probably isn't something the Kings will take lying down. This is a chance for them to send a message to teams trying to maneuver their way into No. 6: challenge us at your own risk. Toss in the possibility that Andrew Wiggins returns to the floor for this one and we've got a marquee matchup.

3. Suns at Lakers, April 7

Do you remember the last time LeBron James and Kevin Durant shared a basketball court? I'll give you a hint: it never happened with Durant wearing a Brooklyn Nets uniform. Durant and James faced off on Christmas, 2018, when Durant was still a member of the Golden State Warriors and James was in his first season with the Los Angeles Lakers. Due to a variety of injuries on both sides, they haven't played each other since.

Here's where things get even crazier: that streak might end on April 7... but they could begin a playoff series against one another just eight days later. We'll get into the specifics a bit later, but there is a very real chance that the Lakers and Suns face off in the first round, especially if the Lakers win this game. If the Suns want the Lakers as their first-round opponent, they might even bench their best players to ensure that matchup. No matter what happens, this game is going to have serious stakes. If it's a Durant vs. James showdown, then all the better.

2. Clippers at Suns, April 9

Hey, speaking of the Suns manipulating the bracket against teams that play in Los Angeles, Phoenix closes their regular season against the Clippers. Those Clippers are just as likely to face the Suns in the first round, and if that is a matchup the Suns want to engineer, they can do so by resting players and handing the Clippers a win. Notably, this would be just the 12th matchup between Durant and Russell Westbrook of their careers, but if they face off in the first round, we'd add at least four more games to that ledger. With Paul George injured, the Suns likely view the Clippers as their preferred first-round opponent, so don't be surprised if Phoenix lies down for this one.

1. Lakers at Clippers, April 5

Nobody's lying down for this one. Assuming the Lakers pick up an expected victory over the Jazz on Tuesday, they will be tied with the Clippers at 41-38 when they battle on Wednesday. The winner will control their destiny for the No. 5 seed. The loser could easily tumble into the play-in round. This is, without hyperbole, the single most important game the Lakers and Clippers have ever played against one another.

And that's before we factor in Westbrook facing off with his old team. The Lakers traded Westbrook in February and have looked like championship contenders ever since. The Clippers picked him up soon after, and the results have been mixed. Westbrook would love to knock the Lakers out of the top six once and for all. The Lakers would love to prove that he was the player holding them back all along by knocking the Clippers down to No. 7. There are games with emotional stakes this week, there are games with practical stakes this week, and there are games with historical stakes this week. Lakers vs. Clippers is the only game to check all three boxes.