The Pittsburgh Pirates (9-3) and Philadelphia Phillies (6-6) open a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Tied 3-3 last season
The Pirates had a 3-game win streak snapped Tuesday with a 5-3 home loss to Detroit. Pittsburgh’s closer RHP David Bednar blew his 3rd save opportunity in 4 tries, allowing 4 runs on 3 hits and a walk in the 9th. The Pirates are 6-1 on the road this season.
Philadelphia won the rubber match of their series in St Louis Wednesday 4-3. C J.T. Realmuto led the way offensively with 2 hits and 2 runs while RHP Aaron Nola pitched 6 innings of 2-run ball. The Phillies have dropped 4 of their 6 games at Citizens Bank Park this season.
Pirates at Phillies projected starters
RHP Jared Jones vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
The rookie Jones (1-1, 3.86 ERA) makes the 3rd start of his career. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 13.1 K/9 in 11 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 5-2 home loss to Baltimore Orioles Friday
- First appearance vs. Phillies
Suarez (1-0, 4.09 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 0.73 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 11 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K in a 5-2 victory at Washington Nationals Saturday
- Career vs. Pirates: 2-0, 2.25 ERA (24 IP, 6 ER), 0.92 WHIP in 3 starts and 3 relief appearances
- Last start vs. Pirates: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K in Bucs’ 7-6 home victory Sept. 27, 2023
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Pirates at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Pirates at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 5, Phillies 2
Moneyline
BET PIRATES (+125).
I’m all in on the Pirates Thursday. Pittsburgh has won 6 of their 7 games away from PNC Park this season. They have also owned southpaws, batting .284 with a perfect 5-0 record against lefties.
On the other side, the Phillies have struggled against right handers, batting just .208 on the season. They’ll have their work cut out for them against the 22-year-old Jones, who has 17 strikeouts in less than 11 2/3 innings.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m going to focus my bet on the moneyline because of the value in the +125 odds. They’re just too juicy to pass up.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
The Pirates will get their runs against the lefty Suarez, but this bet is more about the Phillies not being able to hit right handers. It’s almost astonishing that a lineup as talented as Philadelphia can’t get its act together when it comes to hitting righties.
The Under is 2-1 in the last 3 head-to-head meetings between these 2 clubs. The Phillies have been Under in 7 straight games, while Pittsburgh has been Under in 2 of its last 3.
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