The Philadelphia Phillies (18-10) and San Diego Padres (14-16) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-0
The Phillies opened the series with a 9-3 win on Friday as a slight underdog (+110), while the Over (7.5) came through. In Saturday’s game, Philadelphia also cashed as a ‘dog (+100), winning 5-1, while the Under (7.5) connected.
Philadelphia has won 7 of the past 8 meetings since July 15, 2023, with the Over going 7-3 across the past 10 in the series.
The Phillies have won 3 straight, and 10 of the past 12 outings since April 15. The Under holds a slight 3-2-1 edge in the past 6 games.
The Padres have dropped 3 in a row, and they’ve allowed 8.0 runs per game (RPG) in the past 3 outings. San Diego pitching has allowed 5 or more runs in 3 games in a row, and in 6 of the past 9 outings.
Phillies at Padres projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Michael King
Walker (15-6, 4.38 ERA) made 31 starts in 2023. He had a 1.31 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 172 2/3 IP.
- Making his 2024 debut after opening on the 15-day injured list due to a shoulder impingement
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 3 K in 4-3 road loss vs. New York Mets on Sept. 30, 2023
- 2023 road splits: 8-4, 5.25 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 32 BB, 61 K in 84 IP across 15 starts
King (2-2, 4.11 ERA) makes his 6th start and 7th appearance. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 30 2/3 IP
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 R (4 ER), 8 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 5 K in 7-4 road loss vs. Colorado Rockies Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 2 H (1 HR), 7 BB, 6 K in a 13-4 home win vs. San Francisco Giants on March 31
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Phillies at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-185) | Padres -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Phillies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Padres 2
Moneyline
The PHILLIES (+110) are a strong play at plus-money behind Walker, who makes his season debut. Philadelphia has been cooking along, outscoring the opposition 19-4 in the current 3-Game winning streak, and the Phils have won all 5 Games against NL West Division foes so far this season.
The Padres (-135) have managed just 4 runs in the 1st 2 games of the series, and they’re averaging just 3.4 RPG in the past 10 outings.
Run line/Against the spread
The Phillies +1.5 (-185) are a little too costly on the run line as an underdog, as they’ll set you back nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s way too much risk for not enough reward.
AVOID, and just focus on the moneyline.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit wager at most.
The Under cashed in Saturday’s Game, with just 6 total runs, and the total has gone low at a 6-4 clip in the past 10 Games for the Padres.
The Phillies have allowed just 4 runs in the past 3 games, or 1.33 runs per outing.
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