The Philadelphia Phillies (18-10) and San Diego Padres (14-16) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0

The Phillies opened the series with a 9-3 win on Friday as a slight underdog (+110), while the Over (7.5) came through. In Saturday’s game, Philadelphia also cashed as a ‘dog (+100), winning 5-1, while the Under (7.5) connected.

Philadelphia has won 7 of the past 8 meetings since July 15, 2023, with the Over going 7-3 across the past 10 in the series.

The Phillies have won 3 straight, and 10 of the past 12 outings since April 15. The Under holds a slight 3-2-1 edge in the past 6 games.

The Padres have dropped 3 in a row, and they’ve allowed 8.0 runs per game (RPG) in the past 3 outings. San Diego pitching has allowed 5 or more runs in 3 games in a row, and in 6 of the past 9 outings.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Michael King

Walker (15-6, 4.38 ERA) made 31 starts in 2023. He had a 1.31 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 172 2/3 IP.

  • Making his 2024 debut after opening on the 15-day injured list due to a shoulder impingement
  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 3 K in 4-3 road loss vs. New York Mets on Sept. 30, 2023
  • 2023 road splits: 8-4, 5.25 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 32 BB, 61 K in 84 IP across 15 starts

King (2-2, 4.11 ERA) makes his 6th start and 7th appearance. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 30 2/3 IP

  • Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 R (4 ER), 8 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 5 K in 7-4 road loss vs. Colorado Rockies Tuesday
  • 2024 home splits: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 2 H (1 HR), 7 BB, 6 K in a 13-4 home win vs. San Francisco Giants on March 31

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Phillies at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:28 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-185) | Padres -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Padres 2

Moneyline

The PHILLIES (+110) are a strong play at plus-money behind Walker, who makes his season debut. Philadelphia has been cooking along, outscoring the opposition 19-4 in the current 3-Game winning streak, and the Phils have won all 5 Games against NL West Division foes so far this season.

The Padres (-135) have managed just 4 runs in the 1st 2 games of the series, and they’re averaging just 3.4 RPG in the past 10 outings.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies +1.5 (-185) are a little too costly on the run line as an underdog, as they’ll set you back nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s way too much risk for not enough reward.

AVOID, and just focus on the moneyline.

Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit wager at most.

The Under cashed in Saturday’s Game, with just 6 total runs, and the total has gone low at a 6-4 clip in the past 10 Games for the Padres.

The Phillies have allowed just 4 runs in the past 3 games, or 1.33 runs per outing.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more Sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball