PGA Championship First Round Leader Predictions, Picks & Player Odds

Late starters should get the best of the conditions in the opening round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club, and I’ve picked out two players that have great appeal at big odds to get off to a strong start and be top of the leaderboard after their opening 18 holes in Pittsford. Let’s dive into my PGA Championship first round leader best bets, but make sure you also read Diane Knox Balas’ PGA Championship best bets to win the major, including a pick at 110/1 odds.

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PGA Championship first round leader best bet: Tony Finau (+3500)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Group dynamics can play a significant role in how well a player performs and amiable Utah man Tony Finau will be thrilled to have been put in a threeball alongside the equally pleasant duo of Adam Scott and Max Homa. This trio can make headway up the leaderboard on a sunny afternoon at Oak Hill. With only gentle breezes forecast and temperatures set to reach 66F, Finau and company should get an opportunity to lay a strong foundation for the week ahead.

In contrast, the early starters will be attempting to warm up on the practice ground in freezing conditions and balls will not be Travelling far in the cool morning air. The best round of the day will probably come late – and regular Major contender Finau has as much chance as anyone of hitting the summit. Big Tony has claimed 4 PGA Tour titles in 10 months and produced a masterclass in winning the Mexico Open last month.

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PGA Championship first round leader best bet: Xander Schauffele (+2800)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

With Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth and Cameron Smith facing the morning chill for round one, the first-round-leader market makes lots of appeal. Xander Schauffele, like Tony Finau, can boast 10 top-10 finishes in Majors, relishing the tougher set-ups typically found for the 4 biggest events on the calendar. He was second in the 2018 British Open and second in the 2019 Masters.

Schauffele is 4th on the PGA Tour for first-round scoring average – and the only players above him in that statistic are Rahm, Hovland and Scheffler. Accurate iron-play, particularly from long range, seems the key to Oak Hill success. Finau and Schauffele excel in this department and they could be about to dominate the opening day. Schauffele enjoys teeing up in New York State, where he finished 6th in the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock Hills and 5th in the 2020 edition at Winged Foot.

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