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NY Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 7-4-24 Picks

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Cincinnati Reds (40-45) vs. NY Yankees (54-33)
July 4, 2024 1:05 pm EDT
The Line: NY Yankees -179 / Cincinnati Reds +151; Over/Under: +8.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Cincinnati Reds and the New York Yankees meet Thursday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. Here’s a NY Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction. This will be the final installment in a three-Game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the Game.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Reds took on the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend. Cincinnati managed a split in that four-game series with wins 11-4 Thursday and 9-4 in game three. After a 5-4 win over the Yankees on Tuesday, in the Wednesday matchup the Reds kept it up with a 3-2 victory. Andrew Abbott posted 6.1 frames in the start with one earned run.

In the starter role for Cincinnati on Thursday it’ll be Frankie Montas. This year Montas is 3-6 with a 4.23 ERA in 15 starts. Montas is 40-41 with a 3.93 ERA in 145 career Games (114 starts).

New York Yankees Betting Preview

Over on the Yankees’ side, they played the rival Toronto Blue Jays in their weekend series. New York similarly split that series with wins 16-5 Friday and 8-1 in the finale. In the Wednesday Game two versus the Reds, New York got 5.1 innings and three earned from starter Carlos Rodon.

Marcus Stroman will take the mound for the Yankees on Thursday. This year Stroman is 7-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 17 starts. In his MLB career Stroman is 84-79 with a 3.63 ERA in 248 Games (240 starts).

Yankees vs Reds Pick Injury Notes

Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) did some hitting Tuesday.

Total Runs Facts

  • Seven of the Yankees’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Eight of the Reds’ last 10 day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last five games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last five games.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

  • Aaron Judge has hit a home run in seven of his last eight Thursday day appearances at Yankee Stadium.
  • Juan Soto has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four home appearances against the Reds after playing the previous day.
  • Juan Soto has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven appearances in day games.
  • Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances.
  • Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances.
  • Marcus Stroman has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last five home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Juan Soto has recorded at least one Single in 11 of his last 12 appearances with his team as a favorite against NL Central opponents.
  • Marcus Stroman has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances against NL opponents.
  • Aaron Judge has scored at least one run in each of his last eight Thursday day appearances at Yankee Stadium.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five road appearances against AL opponents.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances against AL opponents.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 road appearances against AL opponents.
  • Frankie Montas has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five road appearances against AL East opponents.
  • TJ Friedl has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jonathan India has scored at least one run in six of the Reds’ last seven games against the Yankees.
  • TJ Friedl has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jonathan India has recorded at least one Double in each of the Reds’ last four day games.

NY Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

I’ll try the Reds in this one. Montas is just 0-1 in his last three starts though, so he’ll need some help from the bats. Over his last 17.0 innings, Montas has given up six earned runs and gone at least 5.0 frames each time. As for Stroman, he’s given up 10 earned runs over his last 16.0 innings.

On Wednesday the Reds had just three hits, two of which were home runs. It’s a lot to ask Montas to set the table in the finale, but if the offense can back him up Cincinnati has a great shot at the sweep.

Andrew's Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds +151

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