The San Diego Padres and LA Dodgers face off Sunday for Game 2 of their best-of-5 NLDS. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is set for 8:03 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoff series: Dodgers lead 1-0
LA picked up a 7-5 win in Saturday’s series opener as a -135 home favorite. After trailing 5-3, the Dodgers exploded for a 3-run 4th inning to take the lead before adding a final run in the 5th. DH Shohei Ohtani went 2 for 5, including a 3-run shot in the 2nd, and scored twice.
The Dodgers outhit the Padres 10-7, but the teams were even in HRs (1-1), runners left on base (8-8), and total bases (13-13). Saturday’s win was the 1st in the postseason for the Dodgers since Game 1 of the NLDS in 2022, also against the Padres.
Padres at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Jack Flaherty
Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA) made 16 starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 81 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-3 victory at Arizona Diamondbacks Sept. 27
- Only career postseason start vs. LA: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-3 road victory Oct. 12, 2022, in Game 2 of NLDS
- Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 5-5, 2.27 ERA (91 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 across 15 starts
- Career postseason: 4-6, 4.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 58 innings
Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) made 28 starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 162 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 4-3 home win over Padres Sept. 25
- Only career postseason start vs. Padres: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 4-0 road defeat Oct. 2, 2020, in Game 3 of NLWC with St. Louis Cardinals
- Career vs. Padres (regular season): 2-1, 4.45 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 6 starts
- Career postseason: 1-3, 3.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 25 innings
Padres at Dodgers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-185) | Dodgers -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Dodgers 3
Moneyline
LEAN PADRES (+120).
San Diego, despite losing the last 3 in LA, has won 6 of the last 10 meetings overall. The 3 straight losses may sound off-putting, but that doesn’t scare me off. I don’t see the Dodgers beating a team as good as this one in 4 straight meetings, so this bet is worth the risk.
This is a lean because the Dodgers are the better and hotter team, so this does come with risk.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I expect the Padres to not only cover, but to also pick up the outright win. However, I am not a fan of doubling down on a team’s ML and run line, and I like the odds on the ML better here. As set at +1.5 (-185), this line is not worth the risk of betting on, so play the ML and/or total instead.
I recommend passing here. However, if you feel more confident in the Padres to cover +1.5 and are okay with betting a -185, then you can seriously consider playing it.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8 (-115).
The Over has hit in back-to-back home games for LA and is 6-3-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 overall. For San Diego, the Over is 2-1 in the playoffs so far and 2-0 in its last 2 road games, including the regular season. The Over has also hit in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
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