The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet Sunday in Game 2 of the best-of-5 NLDS. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 4:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoff series: Mets lead 1-0; Regular-season series: Phillies won 7-6
The Mets were down 1-0 heading into the 8th inning, but scored 5 runs with some good old-fashioned small ball — 3 singles and 2 sac flies — to get the job done. The 6-2 win was their 3rd comeback victory in 4 postseason games.
The Phillies showed some rust after their bye, managing only 2 runs on 5 hits, including a leadoff homer from DH Kyle Schwarber. Starter Zack Wheeler delivered with 9 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings, but the bullpen and offense fell short, resulting in the loss of home-field advantage in this 5-game series.
Mets at Phillies projected starters
RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez
Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) made 31 starts in 2024 with a 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 182 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 8 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 8-4 victory at Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday in the NL Wild Card Game 1
- 2024 road splits: 4-5, 5.00 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 49 R (47 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 15 starts
- Career vs. Phillies: 2-0, 2.84 ERA (19 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 3 HR, 3 BB, 21 K in 3 starts
- Career postseason: 2-4, 5.07 ERA (53 IP, 29 R (28 ER), 29 H, 8 HR, 23 BB, 47 K in 12 games (11 starts)
Sanchez (11-9, 3.32 ERA) made 31 starts in 2024 with a 1.24 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 181 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 9-6 victory against Chicago Cubs Sept. 25
- 2024 road splits: 7-3, 2.21 ERA (110 IP, 32 R (27 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 17 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 2-2, 3.62 ERA (37 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 41 K in 9 games (6 starts)
- Career postseason stats: 0-0, 3.86 ERA (2 1/3 IP, 2 R, 1 ER), 2 H, 0 HR, 1 BB, 1 K in Game 4 relief appearance of the 2023 NLCS
Mets at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:39 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Mets at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Mets 3
Moneyline
PASS.
I’ve got the Phillies (-155) evening the series on Sunday afternoon, but I’ll take my bet to the run line with better odds.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+135).
Saturday’s Game 1 loss was the spark the Phillies needed after a rusty performance following their week off. They can’t afford to go down 0-2 before heading to New York, and with this roster’s deep playoff experience, they know how to respond under pressure.
Sanchez has been lights out at Citizens Bank Park this season, and although Severino has plenty of postseason experience, he’s struggled to find consistent success. Harper’s track record against Severino is also worth noting—2 career hits, both HRs, in just 5 at-bats.
Expect a more focused Phillies team to come out strong, cover the run line, and even up the series before heading to Queens.
Over/Under
BET OVER 7.5 (-115).
Game 1 started off slow offensively, with just 1 run scored through 7 innings, but things changed quickly when the bullpens got involved, resulting in 7 runs in the final 2 frames. The Phillies are primed to get to Severino early, and their bats have been strong at home all season, averaging 5.02 runs per Game—the 2nd-best mark in MLB.
The Over has also hit in 3 of the last 4 meetings, including Game 1. With both teams’ bullpens looking vulnerable, expect another high-scoring affair.
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