The New York Yankees (4-0) and Arizona Diamondbacks (3-1) meet Monday night as they open a 3-game series in Phoenix. First pitch in the opener will be at 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; New York won 2023 series 2-1
The Yankees opened their season by taking 4 straight from the Houston Astros. Newcomer Juan Soto got his career in pinstripes off to a good start by batting .529 with 2 extra-base hits, 4 RBIs, and a couple of key defensive plays in the sweep.
The Diamondbacks remain at home where they won 3 of 4 from the Colorado Rockies. Arizona pounded out a .541 slugging percentage while striking out just 22 times over the 4 games.
Yankees at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Ryne Nelson
Gil underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022 and made it back for 2 appearances at Triple-A in September of 2023.
- The 25-year-old owns a 3.78 ERA in 7 career starts (1.38 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9, 11.6 K/9)
- Clocked a 2.87 ERA with 23 K against 6 BB in 15 2/3 spring-training innings
Nelson went 8-8 with a 5.31 ERA in 2023. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 144 IP.
- Registered a 2.66 ERA in 20 1/3 IP in Cactus League action; filed 26 K against 7 BB
- Posted a 7.25 ERA at home vs. a 3.21 mark on the road
- Has never faced the Yankees
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Yankees at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:49 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Yankees at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 4, Yankees 3
Moneyline
Arizona is 4-1 over its last 5 home games against New York.
Peg the Yankees as being a bit susceptible to a hangover after what is a borderline-emotional sweep of the Astros the last 4 days. New York and Houston have some rivalry history, and it spills into media attention and creates a more tense series atmosphere than most.
Add in the travel and some possible bullpen fatigue, and the Yankees may not be putting its best foot forward in this series opener.
There are also reasons to chip away at Arizona in this matchup. Its a sliver of a lean on the DIAMONDBACKS +105.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: Better relative value can be found in the ML action for this one.
Over/Under
The Under is 3-1-1 across the last 5 series meetings in Phoenix.
The way-too-early offensive numbers for both sides are shaded heavily by some batting-average-on-balls-in-play luck. The Yankees have filed a .333 BABIP when batting with runners in scoring position. The Diamondbacks own a .421 BABIP in such situations and a .546 BABIP when leading off innings (an oft-overlooked clutch batting stat).
Look for some regression in those numbers in a Game featuring 2 starters coming off excellent spring campaigns.
TAKE THE UNDER 10 (-110).
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