Update 5:27 p.m. ET: Wednesday’s game between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves has been postponed due to inclement weather. The game will be made up Thursday, Sept. 26.
Original column below (published 12:09 p.m. ET)
The New York Mets (4-7) take on the Atlanta Braves (7-3) Wednesday in the 3rd game of a 4-game set at Truist Park at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Mets put up a fight Tuesday night, but fell just short 6-5. The Braves were up 6-0, and New York posted 3 runs in the 8th and 2 runs in the 9th. The Mets have won 4 of 6 after an 0-5 start. The bats have been frigid with 1B Pete Alonso hitting .196, and SS Francisco Lindor is hitting .089.
The Braves are navigating some serious injuries already with C Sean Murphy (oblique) and RHP Spencer Strider (elbow) already on the IL. They have one of the most talented rosters in baseball, though, and are pushing through it with 4 wins in 5 games. DH Marcell Ozuna leads the way with a .318 AVG, 5 HR and 13 RBI.
Mets at Braves projected starters
LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Allan Winans
Quintana (0-1, 2.61 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.65 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 10 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 4 K vs. Cincinnati Reds Friday
- Last 5 starts vs. ATL: 0-5, 6.23 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 22 K in 26 IP
Winans makes his 1st appearance in MLB this season.
- He made 1 start at Triple-A Gwinnett April 2 against Louisville: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K
- 2 career starts vs. Mets: 1-1, 5.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 13 K in 11 1/3 IP
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Mets at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-145) | Braves -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Mets at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 7, Mets 5
Moneyline
The Braves boast the best offense in the league with 6.9 R/ Game. Take that into account with Quintana’s futility in his last 5 starts against them, and the Braves should be heavier favorites. The reason they aren’t is the unknown on the bump. However, their offense should be able to overcome that, and Quintana has allowed 2+ walks in both of his starts this year and in 4 of his last 5 against ATL.
You can take the -160 here, but I prefer the RL.
Run line/Against the spread
The Braves have covered in 4 of their 7 wins this season. They have covered this RL in 5 of their last 7 wins against the Mets. There should be a lot of traffic on the basepaths early, and it will be up to Atlanta’s pen to cash this.
I’ll take the value with BRAVES -1.5 (+120).
Over/Under
Both games in this series have gone Over, and the pitching matchup doesn’t give me any evidence to look elsewhere. The Over is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between the teams. The Braves are 7-2-1 O/U in their 10 games as well.
Take the OVER 9.5 (-115).
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