The New York Mets (4-7) and Atlanta Braves (7-3) wrap up what was originally scheduled as a 4-game series Thursday at Truist Park following Wednesday’s postponement. First pitch for the finale is scheduled for 12:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Mets scored an 8-7 win Monday as a heavy underdog (+195) as the Over (10) easily cashed. The Braves returned the favor 6-5 Tuesday as the favorite cashed (-176), while the Over (9) again cashed. Wednesday’s game was rained out and it will be made up Sept. 26.
After an 0-5 start, the Mets have picked up the pace with 4 wins in the past 6 outings. The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games.
The Braves have won 4 of the past 5 games with 3 of the victories by 1 run. The Over has connected in 4 of the past 5 games, including both meetings in this series, while the Over is 7-2-1 in Atlanta’s 10 games.
Mets at Braves projected starters
LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Allan Winans
Quintana (0-1, 2.61 ERA) makes his 3rd start in 2024. He has a 1.65 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9, 7.0 K/9 in 10 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 3-2 win last Friday in Cincinnati
- Last start vs. Braves: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 6 K in a 7-0 loss in Atlanta on Aug. 23, 2023
Winans (1-2, 5.29 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start in 2024. He had a 1.39 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 9.5 K/9 in 32 1/3 IP in his first 6 major-league starts in 2023.
- 2023 home splits: 0-1, 8.44 ERA (16 IP, 15 ER — 5 HR), 3 BB, 14 K in 3 starts
- 2023 vs. Mets: 1-1, 5.56 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 7 ER — 2 HR), 3 BB, 13 K in 2 starts
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Mets at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Mets at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Braves 4
Moneyline
The METS (+140) are a decent play moderate underdogs behind the veteran Quintana against the unproven Winans.
The Braves (-165) saw mixed results from Winans in his 6 starts last season, including 2 outings against the Mets. He twirled 7 scoreless innings at Citi Field Aug. 12, then he was bombarded for 7 ER, 9 H and 2 HR in just 4 1/3 IP in a loss Aug. 21.
Quintana has fired out of the gate this season, allowing just 3 ER in 10 1/3 IP in 2 starts. He has walked 6 batters, and that’s a little bit of a concern.
Run line/Against the spread
The METS +1.5 (-135) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little bit of insurance and would prefer not to pick them straight up.
Remember, in the past 4 victories by the Braves, they have won 3 of those Games by just a single run. So, playing New York makes sense based upon that trend, too.
Over/Under
UNDER 9.5 (-115) is worth a look, as this number is quite high despite the fact we saw the Over cashed in the first 2 games of the series. Go lightly, however, with a half-unit play at most.
While the Over has cashed in 3 of the past 4 Games, the Under has hit in each of Quintana’s 2 outings.
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