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NBA Odds, News & Notes - Evaluating Injuries During the Stretch Run

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You care about the NBA, that’s why you are reading this column. I care about the NBA, that’s why this is my favorite article to write each week. Does the NBA care about the NBA?

As the playoff race reaches its climax, all five of tonight's games have playoff-seeding implications. Not one of the 10 teams is tanking. Nine should reach the postseason.

Yet, the NBA schedule-makers saw fit to have seven of them on the front end of a back-to-back with an eighth on the back end. No, those schedule-makers did not know the Houston Rockets would still be in vague playoff contention, but every other team playing tonight was always viewed as a contender.

The NBA just did not care enough about the quality of the action to let these pivotal games stand on their own, instead caring more about money and insisting on cramming in games tomorrow night, as well.

This is a gripe about the quality of the product, first and foremost. It is also a warning if you make any NBA picks, be sure to take into consideration how the coaching staff views tonight’s game compared to tomorrow's.

Injuries, injuries everywhere

Staying healthy matters. That is not a shock to anyone. But it is an underrated piece of a title run.

Look at the Denver Nuggets last year, with the most notable roster change compared to their 2022 season being Jamal Murray’s health. With an intact roster, Denver made relative mincemeat of the postseason. A year earlier, the Nuggets had been rolled in five games by the Golden State Warriors.

Of course, players would have a better chance at Health if the NBA did not insist on back-to-backs amid the playoff race or if it — and this will never happen — shortened the season to 72 Games. For that matter, some of the maladies of note this week are presumably sidelining players only because they want to get to 100% before the playoffs commence.

Nonetheless, the list of injuries among Western Conference contenders is getting lengthy and should be monitored …

  • The Minnesota Timberwolves are still without Karl-Anthony Towns (meniscus surgery), reportedly eyeing a return before the end of the season.
  • Jamal Murray has missed the Nuggets’ last six games due to myriad leg worries (knee, ankle, shins).
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have quite possibly lost their chance at the No. 1 seed due to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams missing multiple games this week, both seemingly precautionary more than serious worries.
  • Kawhi Leonard’s knee has cost him two games this week and it should be remembered the Los Angeles Clippers’ defensive rating without him this season would rank last in the NBA since March 1.
  • Brandon Ingram has not yet returned from a knee bruise, and now the New Orleans Pelicans need to worry about an apparent injury to Zion Williamson’s finger, though a Thursday MRI showed no structural concern.
  • The Sacramento Kings have lost Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk in recent weeks.

That is six of the Western Conference’s current top-eight, the only exceptions being the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns. That is not endorsing a futures play on either of them, but if they find the right first-round matchup, a run could be conceivable.

Tonight's NBA best bets

Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are 12.2 points worse in net rating in seven games without Leonard this season than in the 68 games with him. One can argue there should be a sample-size worry in that stat, but the degree to which Los Angeles falls off without Leonard stands out more than any statistical oddity

The Clippers fall off both offensively (-5.1) and defensively (-7.2). They lose any semblance of an identity.

Los Angeles is 2-5 against the spread this season without Leonard, including 1-4 both outright and ATS against potential playoff teams. The market does not appropriately fade the Clippers when Leonard is on the sideline.

Our Rory Breasail argues the market should be fading Los Angeles entirely these days.

“While their offense has sustained somewhat, their defense has gone from stifling to inert. Since the beginning of March Los Angeles has the fourth-worst defense in the NBA. 

“They’re getting killed against the spread as well. In March only the actively tanking (and current owners of a 15-game losing streak) Toronto Raptors have underperformed the spread by more. 

“And it’s only getting worse. While they’ve managed to win three of their last seven games, L.A. has a -10 spread differential in that time per Cleaning the Glass. They are not just losing, they are getting the breaks beat off them by the likes of the Sacramento Kings and Indiana Pacers, themselves far from world beaters in recent weeks.”

Best bet: Nuggets -4 (-108 at DraftKings)

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat

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One of the two teams not involved in a back-to-back in any regard tonight, the Philadelphia 76ers also enjoy a motivated Joel Embiid. There is a path out of the Play-In for the 76ers, but they cannot dawdle. A win tonight would get them within one game of the No. 6 seed.

The Miami Heat will be just as focused, even with a trip to Houston awaiting tomorrow, but the idea of Embiid knowing he can single-handedly haul Philadelphia out of the Play-In is an idea worth betting on.

Best bet: 76ers moneyline (+112 at BetRivers)

NBA Trends: Healthy & Defensive

In the last two weeks, the Dallas Mavericks have posted the No. 3 net rating in the NBA, behind only the top team in each conference. Since March 1, they have sat at No. 8.

The surprising piece about the Mavs climbing in those advanced numbers is that their offense has not been the catalyst. A team led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving has posted the No. 2 defensive rating in the last two weeks, and the No. 9 defensive rating since March 1.

This should spark concern for opponents. If Luka has found a strong defense, then Dallas might truly be a postseason contender.

Raising the ceiling: All Suns, No Brakes

Similarly, the Phoenix Suns have climbed in net rating of late. In the last two weeks, across eight games, Phoenix has sat at No. 5 in the NBA. Their offensive rating is at No. 5, as well, compared to a No. 12 defensive rating.

The Suns should find their way into the playoffs thanks to this surge, one that started right about the time Devin Booker not only returned to the lineup but found his groove alongside Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant.

Making it into the playoffs counts as raising the ceiling. But beyond that? Offensive variance is a risky bet to make in the playoffs, and it is all that Phoenix can turn to.

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NBA futures update: Factoring in Those Injuries

Consider the injuries listed above. The most concerning two are Jamal Murray’s and Kawhi Leonard’s. Without either of them at full strength, it is hard to see their respective teams as genuine contenders. As great as Nikola Jokic is, even he has not been able to make a postseason run without his favorite clutch shotmaker in a primary role.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has kept winning without Towns, going 10-4 outright and 9-5 ATS while posting the No. 4 net rating in that stretch. In theory, the Timberwolves will be better with Towns’s presumed return. But even if not, they remain a threat.

And Oklahoma City looks to be sacrificing seeding for health.

Yet, sportsbooks still consider the Nuggets (+160 at BetRivers) and the Clippers (+372 at Pinnacle) to be the Western Conference frontrunners. There is value to be had in the Timberwolves (+1200 at BetRivers) and the Thunder (+717 at Pinnacle) if you do not already have an investment in them.

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Moneyline underdogs picks

Odds are not yet out on these games, but a few spots to keep an eye on …

Kings vs Celtics (Friday, April 5): The Kings will probably not win this road game. They will be on the second night of a back-to-back and their rotation is becoming ever shorter. But the oddsmakers will put the usual stock in those realities while not factoring in the Celtics’ ambivalence. Boston has secured home-court advantage through the entire playoffs. They have reached 60 wins. They can take the next two weeks off, and they just might. So whatever moneyline is available on Sacramento will provide value simply because the Celtics might not show up, figuratively of course.

Heat vs Rockets (Friday, April 5): If Houston loses on Thursday to Golden State, then Friday night should be a huge letdown moment. The Rockets’ postseason hopes will be effectively ended, and the young team will know as much. Both Houston and Miami will be on the second night of back-to-backs, less than ideal, but the Heat will have more remaining to play for provided the Rockets drop on Thursday.

Cavaliers vs Clippers (Sunday, April 7): As long as Kawhi Leonard is sidelined, bet against Los Angeles any way you can against playoff-quality teams. Cleveland has been scuffling of late, but it is still a playoff-quality team.

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