MLB

Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 7-22-24 Picks

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Jul 22, 2024 / 4497 Views

Philadelphia Phillies (63-36) vs. Minnesota Twins (54-44)
July 22, 2024 7:40 pm EDT
The Line: Minnesota Twins +116 / Philadelphia Phillies -137; Over/Under: +8
(Get latest betting odds)

The Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins meet Monday in MLB Game 1 action at Target Field. Here’s a Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction. This article will include a Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 63-36 on the year after playing the Pirates and Athletics. The Philadelphia Phillies have scored 14 runs in their last 3 games and 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 11 games. The Philadelphia Phillies have won 10 of their last 12 games when scoring 4 or more runs. Alec Bohm leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 111 hits and 71 RBI while Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos have combined for 185 hits and 113 RBI.

Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 55-44 on the year after playing the Brewers and Giants. The Minnesota Twins have scored 13 runs in their last 3 Games and 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 10 Games. The Minnesota Twins have won 9 of their last 12 Games when scoring 4 or more runs. Willi Castro leads the Minnesota Twins with 92 hits and 30 RBI while Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda have combined for 189 hits and 90 RBI.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Pitching Pick Matchup

Ranger Suarez gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 10-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 112 strikeouts this season. Suarez has allowed 12 hits and 9 runs in his last 11 innings. Suarez has a 2.67 ERA and .205 allowed batting average in 57.1 road innings. This will be Suarez’s second career Game against the Minnesota Twins.

Bailey Ober gets the ball for the Minnesota Twins, and he is 8-5 with a 4.14 ERA and 106 strikeouts this season. Ober has allowed 11 hits and 4 earned runs in his last 12 innings. Ober has a 3.29 ERA and .234 allowed batting average in 38.1 home innings. This will be Ober’s first career Game against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Why the Minnesota Twins will Beat the Phillies

The Twins have won each of their last four games as home underdogs after playing the previous day.
The Phillies have lost five of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents following a road win.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents following a road win.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Twins’ last seven games.
The Twins have won the first inning in each of their last three games as home underdogs.
The Twins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as home underdogs.
The Twins have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home underdogs against National League opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

Max Kepler has hit a home run in four of the Twins’ last five games as underdogs against the Phillies.
Bailey Ober has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances.
Byron Buxton has scored at least one run in nine of his last 10 appearances after playing the previous day.
Bailey Ober has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Twins as home underdogs.
Max Kepler has recorded at least one total base in each of the Twins’ last nine games against opponents that held a winning record.
Carlos Santana has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against the Phillies after playing the previous day.
Christian Vazquez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances.
Jose Miranda has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances in night games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

J.T. Realmuto has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Phillies against AL opponents.
Nick Castellanos has recorded a Double in each of the Phillies’ last four games as road favorites.
Alec Bohm has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies’ last four games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Nick Castellanos has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Phillies’ last four games as road favorites.
Ranger Suarez has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last five appearances against the Twins after playing the previous day.
Trea Turner has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances against the Twins.
J.T. Realmuto has recorded a hit in each of his last seven road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Ranger Suarez ranks T5th in the league for Wins (10) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Minnesota Twins rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (196).
The Minnesota Twins rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (247).
The Philadelphia Phillies rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.44).
The Philadelphia Phillies rank T1st in the league for strikeouts this season (896).

Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

The Minnesota Twins are worth a look at home in the underdog role, but Bailey Ober has been hit or miss this season and the price isn’t worth the squeeze. The Philadelphia Phillies are not only the better side, but Ranger Suarez has been CY Young good. I’d need more bang for my buck to go against the Phillies and Suarez with how he’s pitched this season. Give me the Phillies.