Luka Doncic Odds & Props - June 17, 2024

Whether he heard the criticism or not, Luka Doncic played like a man with something to prove in the Dallas Mavericks’ dramatic blowout of the Boston Celtics in Game 4, but can Luka & Co. carry over the combination of desperation and composure that got them here? Or will Boston’s defense reassert itself and close the series out at home?

My NBA picks and Mavericks vs. Celtics predictions for Game 5 take stock of why Luka’s assist totals have been so low this series and whether to expect it will continue.

Luka Doncic prop picks for June 17

• Under 8.5 assists (-140 at Betway)
• Under 8.5 assists + Under 32.5 points + Under 0.5 blocks (+300 at DraftKings)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Luka Doncic best bet

Under 8.5 assists (-140)

The Dallas Mavericks are still, somewhat improbably, alive. It’s not that they won Game 4 that is a shock so much as the way they dominated it from start to finish, but even in a game in which everything tilted in Dallas’ favor and against the Boston Celtics, one broad truism of the series held out: Luka Doncic was held in check as a playmaker, finishing with just five assists.

Luka is only averaging 5.8 assists in the Finals, a marked drop from his 9.8 average in the regular season. With a player of Luka’s caliber, there’s always going to be the worry that his performance is going to rebound toward career norms, but with the way the Celtics are playing him, I believe the chances of that are quite low.

It’s not that his teaMMAtes are just missing shots which would be subject to some randomness and possible regression, it’s that Luka simply isn’t in position to set up his teaMMAtes nearly as often as usual.

He averaged around 15 potential assists in the first three rounds of the playoffs, but that has cratered to just nine through four games against Boston. His assists in the Finals are coming mostly from pick-and-pop threes from above the break by more limited Mavs shooters. Those are inherently less reliable sources for assists than the lob dunks and wide-open corner threes he generated at will in previous rounds.

Even if there are more blitzes in Game 5 as a result of Doncic’s ability to attack Xavier Tillman or another Celtics big 1-on-1, those will likely lead to hockey assists rather than straight to open shots.

The way the Celtics are playing — cross-matching Jayson Tatum against the Dallas bigs — has shut off the water on Luka’s lob game. Dallas finally had luck making Boston pay for that strategy on the boards in Game 4, but I don’t expect Joe Mazzulla to overreact to one loss and shift away from a strategy that has them up 3-1 to begin with. 

The coverage that Boston is employing is why these Luka Doncic odds — that once would have looked meager for him — are instead so enticing. This isn’t a matter of missed shots, it’s the Celtics completely taking away the assist opportunities that Luka thrives on.

Prop: Under 8.5 assists (-140 at Betway)

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Luka Doncic same-game parlay

Luka Doncic Under 8.5 assists

Luka Doncic Under 32.5 points

Luka Doncic Under 0.5 blocks

+300 at DraftKings

It’s never going to feel entirely comfortable betting against a Luka scoring bonanza in the playoffs, but the Celtics have made this a reliable play all series long. Luka has yet to score more than 32 points in any game this series, and his inability to generate consistent offense either from behind the arc or at the foul line means he's working very hard for every bucket.

Jrue Holiday and Jaylen Brown have really made him work. They’re bothering his dribble and forcing turnovers that have him isolating and posting up less than in prior series. He’s tiring throughout every game and has only totaled eight points combined in the fourth quarter against Boston.

Luka’s defense has also been a popular (and justified) target for scorn, but the reason I’m betting against him tallying a block is more the result of scheme than effort. 

The Mavs’ game plan means their center is always going to be the last line of defense in the paint. They don’t want Luka rotating as the low man to help, they instead want him to do his best to hold up on the perimeter and prevent drives. Under no circumstances do they want him risking additional foul trouble by actually contesting shots and playing physical defense around the basket.

Luka has yet to record a block in the series, and that makes six straight games overall he’s gone without one.

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