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Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 7-31-24 MLB Picks

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Pittsburgh Pirates (54-52) vs. Houston Astros (55-51)
July 31, 2024 8:10 pm EDT
The Line: Houston Astros -200 / Pittsburgh Pirates +182; Over/Under: +8.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Houston Astros meet Tuesday in MLB action from Minute Paid Park. Here’s a Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction. This will be the second installment in a three-Game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the Game.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pirates played the Arizona Diamondbacks last weekend. Pittsburgh lost the first pair in that set before a Sunday win 6-5 to stop the sweep. After a 5-3 win over the Pirates in their series opener, on Tuesday Pittsburgh powered out a 6-2 victory. Starter Bailey Falter lasted 5.1 innings with one earned run.

Martin Perez will take the start for the Pirates on Wednesday. This year Perez is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA in 16 starts. Perez is 87-86 with a 4.48 ERA in 304 career Games (259 starts).

Houston Astros Betting Preview

Over on the Astros’ side, they took on the Los Angeles Dodgers in their last series. Houston won the first pair in that set before a Sunday loss 6-2. On Tuesday the Astros committed three errors and came up with 10 team hits in the defeat.

It’ll be Framber Valdez in the starting role for the Astros on Wednesday. So far this year Valdez is 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 18 starts. Over 147 career Games (125 starts) Valdez is 62-39 with a 3.40 ERA.

Astros vs Pirates Pick Injury Notes

Astros SP Justin Verlander (neck) threw from the mound Tuesday.

Total Runs Facts

  • Four of the Pirates’ last five road games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Four of the Astros’ last five games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last eight night games against American League opponents.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last five games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Yainer Diaz has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Astros’ last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • Framber Valdez has recorded nine or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Yainer Diaz has scored a run in each of the Astros’ last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
  • Yainer Diaz has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Astros’ last seven games against NL opponents.
  • Framber Valdez has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances.
  • Jose Altuve has recorded at least one Single in each of the Astros’ last 11 night games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 14 Wednesday games as favorites.
  • Jose Altuve ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.309) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

  • Michael A. Taylor has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two games against the Astros.
  • Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents.
  • Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six road appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has scored at least one run in each of the Pirates’ last seven road games against AL opponents.
  • Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight road appearances against AL opponents.
  • Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (962).
  • The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.262).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 28th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.369).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates rank T3rd in the league for home runs allowed this season (105).

Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

I’ll stay with the Astros here, but the line’s a little too thick to mess with. Valdez should post a solid start. In his last three starts combined Valdez is 2-0 with three earned in 19.0 innings total. As for Perez, he’s coming off 6.0 clean frames versus the Cardinals but gave up 11 earned in 8.1 innings prior to that.

On Tuesday Houston really couldn’t cash in on their 10 hits—four of which belonged to Yainer Diaz. Hunter Brown had a couple of bad innings but the bullpen did pretty well, all things considered. I like Houston to bounce back Wednesday. Probably not touching it, though.

Andrew's Free Pick: Houston Astros -200

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