The Houston Astros (59-55) and Boston Red Sox (61-52) open a 3-game set at Fenway Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Astros won 5-2 last year
The Astros won 2 of 3 games at the Texas Rangers, wrapping up the series with a 6-4 victory as -126 favorites Wednesday with the Over (9) barely hitting. LF Yordan Álvarez belted a 117-mph HR, his hardest shot of the year for Houston, which has won 2 straight after enduring a 3-game skid Saturday through Monday.
The Red Sox failed to complete a 3-game sweep at the Kansas City Royals. They lost 8-4 as +124 underdogs in the Wednesday finale as the Over (8.5) cashed. Wednesday’s loss snapped a 3-game win streak for Boston.
Astros at Red Sox projected starters
TBD vs. TBD
RHP Ronel Blanco (9-6, 2.98 ERA) is expected to make his 22nd start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 124 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-1 home defeat vs. Tampa Bay Rays Saturday
- 2024 road stats: 5-2, 2.87 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 9 starts
- Never faced Red Sox before
RHP Tanner Houck (8-8, 3.09 ERA) is projected to make his 23rd start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 134 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 7-4 setback at Rangers Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 4-5, 3.08 ERA (76 IP, 26 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 12 starts
- Career vs. Astros: 0-1, 3.52 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 3.5 K/9 in 3 appearances (1 start), including 0-1 with 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER) in 1 start last year
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Astros at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
The ASTROS (+115) swept the Red Sox in 3 games during their most-recent series in Boston last year (Aug. 28-30). Houston was an underdog in the 1st 2 meetings and won those by an average margin of 6 runs per game.
The Astros are 4-2 in Blanco’s last 6 road starts, while the Red Sox are 0-3 since the All-Star break when Houck takes the mound.
BET ASTROS (+115).
Run line/Against the spread
Houston +1.5 (-185) should hit, but betting lines with this much vig in MLB makes staying profitable almost impossible.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Over has hit in 6 straight for the Red Sox, but this total is set just a bit too high. Blanco has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 6 of his 8 road starts this season, while Houck has given up 3 or fewer in 10 of his 12 outings at home.
BET UNDER 9.5 (+100).
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