Heat vs Mavericks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA

It’s a matchup of teams with deep playoff aspirations but very contrasting styles as Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks host Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat on Thursday night.

Doncic and the Mavs have stumbled a bit coming out of the All-Star break, dropping five of their last six games overall. Meanwhile, Jimmy Buckets and the Heat appear to be playing their best basketball of the season as they ramp up for the stretch run.

Despite this, the NBA odds have Dallas as the home favorite for this matchup. Does that mean there is betting value in Miami as a road underdog? I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Mavericks on March 7. 

Heat vs Mavericks odds

Heat vs Mavericks predictions

It feels like the All-Star break was the worst thing to happen to the Dallas Mavericks. Luka Doncic and his teammates were cruising. The Mavs had made some sound tweaks to their roster at the trade deadline and had won six in a row. They even carried that over into one more win coming out of the break against the Phoenix Suns. 

But since then, Dallas has faltered. The Mavericks have lost five of their last six overall, with three of those losses coming as favorites. 

While Doncic and Kyrie Irving lead an efficient offense, the defense for Dallas was always going to be a problem. It’s just that Doncic and Irving were playing so well they were able to offset it for a while.

The Mavericks rank 23rd in defensive rating and 20th in opponent-effective field goal percentage for the season. And that poor defense has reared its ugly head during this six-game stretch, where the team ranks dead last in D-rating.

The Miami Heat are basically the exact opposite of the Mavericks. The Heat started the season slowly, and most shockingly, their defensive numbers were way below expectations.

But it appears that Jimmy Butler and Co. have flipped the switch, and now it's go-time with the playoffs quickly approaching.

The Heat are 11-3 straight up and against the spread over their last 14 games. The three losses all came by eight points or less and were against the defending champion Denver Nuggets, the NBA-best Boston Celtics, and a serious West contender in the Los Angeles Clippers.

Miami’s offense has improved during this period but it’s the Heat defense that has really started cooking. Miami ranks third in defensive rating over that stretch allowing an NBA-low 103.9 points per game. The Heat have also really clamped down on the perimeter, where they are holding opponents to a league-low 32.8% from 3-point range.

That last part is key, considering the Mavericks take the second most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA.

Honestly, this feels like a trap. Why are we getting points with the team that is playing better overall and has the defensive capabilities to, at the very least, slow down Doncic and his teammates? What gives? But the numbers and eye test say take the points with Jimmy Buckets and the Heat here. So, that’s exactly what we’re going to do.

My best bet: Heat +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Heat vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Heat +4.5

Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 assists

Josh Green Over 7.5 points

+602 at FanDuel

OK, let’s start with one of the Heat’s best players, Bam Adebayo. While Bam is mostly known for his offensive and defensive work in the paint, we're getting a really good number when it comes to his assists prop, which is sitting at 3.5.

Now, Adebayo’s assists have been down a bit lately, but that's part of the reason for the good number, and he's still averaging 4.0 assists per game this season. We already talked about how bad the Mavericks' defense has been recently, and that has bled over into assists. They're allowing the second-most assists per game post-All-Star break. Add Adebayo to go Over 3.5 assists tonight.

We also talked about how the Heat’s defense has been really good lately. But no matter how good you're playing, it will take a lot of effort to slow down Doncic and Irving. That said, I’m sure Miami will do whatever it can to get the ball out of their hands.

So, I’m looking at that Josh Green’s point total sitting at 7.5. This is another decent number we are getting because of a little bit of the Mavs slump. Green hasn’t gone Over this number in five straight, but he’s been an excellent shooter all season and still averages 8.8 points per game. Before the last five games, he had gone Over 7.5 points in 16 of 18 games.

With Doncic and Irving getting most of Miami’s attention, I like Green to get back on track tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Heat vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Mavericks opened this NBA matchup as 4.5-point home favorites, and that’s where the line remains as of Thursday afternoon. I broke down why I like the Heat above, to the point where I might sprinkle a little on the Miami moneyline as well. It doesn’t hurt that the Heat have covered the spread in seven straight road games.

The total hit the board at 229, and that has also stayed put. Since Miami has flipped the switch, the Heat have been cashing a lot of Unders. Eleven in their last 15 Games, to be precise. A lot of the same reasons I like Miami ATS here can be applied to the total as well. 

The Heat are playing excellent defense and have the tools to at least slow down the Mavs offense. Plus, Miami plays at the sixth-slowest pace in the NBA.

Heat vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on the road. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Mavericks.

Heat vs Mavericks game info

Heat vs Mavericks latest injuries

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