Golf picks: US PGA Championship best bets from Diane Knox Balas

Picture this situation: you carefully track the trends and pick the same Golfer to win pretty much every week of the 2023 PGA Tour schedule. You come off him for one week, and that week he wins. This is my reality with Jason Day. I am, of course, over the moon for the Aussie to get his first win in 5 years — and for that win to occur on Mother’s Day after his beloved mum passed away last year. I’m just so mad at myself for not sticking with him last week!

My pick of Ryan Palmer was on the money, however. I had the 46-year-old as an outright at +15000, and he held the 54-hole lead but eventually finished in a tie for 8th to cash in my top-10 finish pick at +900.

We move onto the second major of the year, and it’s a major Day already has under his belt. The PGA Championship takes place this week at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY, and it will be the sixth time this legendary course has hosted a major championship. The last time the PGA was here, Jason Dufner shot the course record (63) in the second round and never looked back — reaching -10 and winning the Wanamaker trophy by 2 strokes. By all accounts this is going to be a very tough scoring week for the field and 10-under seems like a very ambitious final score.

As you would expect, all the big names are teeing it up this week. Jon Rahm will be looking for this third piece of major hardware, Scottie Scheffler is in form after finishing T5 last week in the Byron Nelson and Rory McIlroy will be looking to contend in his wife’s hometown at a club where he is an honorary member.

Also, Jordan Spieth will be attempting to complete the career Grand Slam under a cloud of injury concerns after withdrawing from the Byron Nelson last week with a sore wrist. Justin Thomas is back as the defending PGA champion.

With this being a major, LIV golfers are thrown back into the equation — with Dustin Johnson coming off a $4 million win last week in Tulsa.

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Oak Hill Country Club (East Course): What you need to know

It’s a major, therefore the course is going to be big and tough. Oak Hill has undergone some renovation work since the PGA Championship was last held here. Plus, it’s longer — a par 70 at almost 7,400 yards.

Narrow fairways, added length, deeper bunkers, elevated, sloped greens and thick, penal rough will pose a real challenge this week. It doesn’t look like the guys will be able to scramble their way around the course, and all elements of the Game are going to have to be sharp.

Length off the tee is always advantageous on these long courses, especially when it comes to avoiding, and passing, the tricky fairway bunkers, but with the rough being thick and tricky, accuracy is going to be just as important. 

The weather in upstate New York will play a role, but the course has been fitted with a state-of-the-art drainage system to keep those greens running fast. It’s forecast to rain over the weekend with low temperatures in the morning.

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Knox’s PGA Championship picks

Brooks Koepka (+2200 at BetRivers)

What a career revitalization for Koepka…. After being plagued by injury, surgeries and slow recoveries, Koepka is back and ready to dominate the major scene yet again. The 2-time PGA champion recently got his second win on the LIV Golf tour in Orlando and since then has racked up an additional 3 top-6 finishes, including a runner-up at the Masters last month. Also, Koepka and his wife Jena just announced they are expecting their first baby — a boy — and the happiness seems to be oozing out of him. Happiness, and that steely competitiveness we were used to seeing from him back in 2018-19. I have no doubt Koepka will contend this week.

Cameron Young (+3200 at FanDuel)

When looking at players with big games to take on this big course, Young is part of that group. Plus, I love these odds. He has excellent major experience in his short career on the PGA Tour, finishing third in the PGA Championship and runner-up at the British Open — both last year. Young is a huge hitter — third on the tour — and sits within the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee. His putter runs hot and cold, but one thing the American really has in his favor is the fact he knows these conditions having grown up in New York State (but not so upstate). He is still looking for his first win, but this talented 26-year-old has proven he is ready for one of major status.

Adam Scott (+7500 at DraftKings)

Scott is turning back the clock! The 42-year-old is back to #38 in the OWGR and has been playing excellent Golf since the end of last season on the PGA Tour, when he finished with back-to-back fifth-place finishes to make it to the Tour Championship. He has finished T5 and T8 in his last 2 events and is returning to a course where he finished T5 in the last PGA Championship held there (2013). Scott is top 30 off the tee on tour right now and just outside the top 50 in putting. This is a nice price for the Aussie.

Gary Woodland (+11000 at FanDuel)

Woodland knows how to win a major, lifting the U.S. Open trophy in 2019 at Pebble Beach. He has found some form and enters the PGA Championship with some positive momentum, finishing T14 at the Wells Fargo Championship (his last tournament played) and T14 at the Masters. Consistently fantastic off the tee, Woodland has gained strokes on the field every time he has teed it up since October last year. He also possesses serious length, but has combined that with good accuracy this season to really capitalize and record some strong rounds. He’ll have to figure out the greens, but at these odds I’ll happily take Woodland.

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