Golden Knights vs Blues Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NHL

The St. Louis Blues host the Vegas Golden Knights in a pivotal Western Conference contest tonight. St. Louis is four points behind Vegas for the final wild-card spot, and the Golden Knights also have a game in hand.

Both teams have won consecutive games heading into this four-point swing game, and the Blues boast a 21-12-2 record at the Enterprise Center. Additionally, the highway hasn’t been kind to the Golden Knights, with Vegas sporting a ho-hum 15-14-5 record away from Sin City. Still, it’s the visiting Knights trading as road favorites in the NHL odds.

Here are my free NHL picks and top NHL player props for the Golden Knights vs. Blues bout on Monday, March 25.

Golden Knights vs Blues odds

Golden Knights vs Blues predictions

While the St. Louis Blues have won six of their past seven Games to push for a postseason berth, their underlying numbers are shaky. St. Louis has been one of the worst 5-on-5 teams with a 30th-ranked 44.6 Corsi For percentage and 43.5 expected goals percentage.

Additionally, the recent winning streak has been fueled by an unsustainable uptick in shooting efficiency. After St. Louis posted a 24th-ranked 9.6 team shooting percentage (8.1% at 5-on-5) through the first 64 games of the year, the Blues have skyrocketed to a sixth-ranked 11.5% at 5-on-5 and fourth-ranked 14.4% overall during the noted seven-game heater.

A quick peek at the St. Louis depth chart showcases a lack of high-end talent and an even larger lack of scoring depth. Simply put, statistical correction is ahead for the Blues. I also view the Vegas Golden Knights as the perfect opponent for the negative scoring regression to begin kicking in for the Blues.

Vegas definitely has some analytical flaws of its own, but the Golden Knights have dominated at 5-on-5 since No. 1 center Jack Eichel returned with a 55.9 CF% and 57.7 xGF%.

I also value that starting goalie Logan Thompson has stopped 41 of 43 shots across his past two starts, and recently acquired defenseman Noah Hanifin has been the real deal. Hanifin’s 61.4 CF% paces the club at 5-on-5, and he’s been on the ice for the fewest expected goals against per 60 among Vegas blueliners at all strengths, 5-on-5 and while shorthanded.

I expected goals to be tough to come by for the Blues on Monday.

My best bet: Blues Under 2.5 goals (+112 at Pinnacle)

Golden Knights vs Blues same-game parlay

Statistical correction has already started taking a toll on Blues No. 1 Jordan Binnington. He posted a sterling .927 SV% through 23 starts out of the holiday break, but the 30-year-old Canadian has allowed four goals in consecutive Games with an .884 mark. The recent form is far more in line with his body of work over the prior two seasons when he recorded an .897 SV% and 3.24 GAA, too.

Add the highlighted mismatch in the 5-on-5 numbers to Vegas checking out better on both special teams, and I like the Golden Knights to top the Blues on Monday.

The final leg of this same-game parlay is also one of my favorite NHL player props for tonight’s action. Jordan Kyrou has consecutive three-point showings with four goals on just seven shots. I anticipate his puck luck also cooling, and especially given he and linemates Pavel Buchnevich and Brandon Saad have a miserable 38.3 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5.

Finally, it’s worth highlighting this SGP is priced at just +214 through DraftKings, so betting it at bet365 gives a nice advantage in the numbers. The +240 bet365 odds present a positive expected value of 8% over DraftKings' number.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Golden Knights vs Blues moneyline and Over/Under analysis

There hasn’t been notable movement to this moneyline with Sports Interaction, bet365, and Pinnacle all at or near their opening numbers. Vegas defenseman Alex Pietrangelo (illness) has already been ruled out, and both starting goalies have been announced, so I’m not expecting a meaningful adjustment to the numbers ahead of puck drop, either.

It’s a similar story to the total. It’s a near consensus 6.0 with the Over carrying the higher vig. FanDuel does have a rouge 6.5 total available with the Under priced at -134 as of Monday afternoon.

One note to keep in mind about this total is there's potential for a goalie to be pulled earlier — or for a longer period of time — because of the must-win situation and potential of this being a four-point swing game.

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Golden Knights vs Blues betting trend to know

Vegas has beaten St. Louis is 13 of the past 19 meetings between the two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Blues.

Golden Knights vs Blues game info

Golden Knights vs Blues latest injuries

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