Expert MLB best bets, picks and predictions today, 7/1 | Pickswise

Happy Saturday, and welcome to the weekend in Major League Baseball. It’s an action-packed slate with rain, air quality and more supposed to affect several games today, but that didn’t stop me from finding 2 best bets for today. I’m trying to extend my streak to 5-0 following a 3-0 effort on Wednesday.

Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Saturday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s Games.

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Cincinnati Reds F3 Team Total Under 1.5 (-115)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

11-0. That’s the record of this pick in Michael Wacha’s last 11 starts. To be more specific, Wacha has allowed less than 2 runs in the first 3 innings in his last 11 consecutive starts. In total, the right-hander has allowed only 3 runs in the first 3 innings during those 11 outings. That’s complete domination of the first run through the opposing lineup, and his stats back it up. In his 14 starts, Wacha has a 1.71 ERA with a .182 opponent batting average in the first 3 innings. One of the 11 times he allowed less than 2 runs in the first 3 innings came against this Reds team in San Diego at the beginning of May. Wacha was fantastic in that outing, as he threw 6.0 scoreless innings and surrendered just 2 hits while striking out 3.

Great American Ball Park is known to be very friendly to hitters, but that shouldn’t be the case today. It’s going to be a wet day in Cincinnati with rain happening all morning that should slowly start clearing up by first pitch. Still, the air should be dense and the wind is projected to be blowing in from right field. But hopefully for Wacha, the ball won’t be in the air much. He relies on a changeup for 32% of his pitches – a pitch that the Reds really struggle to hit. In fact, Cincinnati has a -3.7 wCH (changeup runs above average), which is the 6th-worst mark in the league. If Wacha can get the young Reds hitters out in front and reaching for his changeup, this prop has a great chance to move to 12-0.

Check out my +1188 MLB mega parlay for today!

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Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays F3 Under 2.5 (+106)

Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

If you follow me on Twitter, and if not, you totally should, you would know I’ve backed Kutter Crawford several times since he was moved into the starting rotation. But I don’t back him to have the Red Sox win or a different full-game bet – I back him only in the first 3 innings. That’s because the first 3 innings under is a perfect 5-0 in Crawford’s last 5 starts. Now, that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been some sweat involved, because there absolutely has. But in the end, it’s been an ATM. Since being moved into the rotation, Crawford has allowed a .289 batting average but has just a .237 xBA, so he has been getting quite unlucky. He also has a 25% strikeout rate paired with just a 5% walk rate during those 5 outings which is a great ratio. The 27-year-old will face a Toronto lineup that crushes fastballs but has struggled with offspeed pitches this season. Besides his fastball, Crawford throws a lot of cutters and sliders that run away from right-handed hitters.

Yusei Kikuchi is not being talked about enough. Following a bumpy start to the season, Kikuchi had a 2.28 ERA paired with a 0.87 WHIP in 5 starts in June. His advanced metrics back up his excellent month since opponents hit a measly .180 with a .202 xBA. And that’s not all, because the southpaw also had a 31% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and just a 31% hard-hit rate. He was outstanding last month, and he’s fortunate enough to make this start at home where he’s been at his best. I like the chances of Crawford and Kikuchi keeping the scoring to a minimum in the first few innings in the Six.

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