Expert MLB best bets, picks and predictions today, 6/28 | Pickswise

We’re halfway through the week in Major League Baseball, and we have plenty of games on all day to enjoy. The action begins with a 12:20 pm ET  first pitch in Atlanta between the Twins and Braves and concludes with a 9:40 pm ET start in Oakland between the downward-spiraling Yankees and A’s.

Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Wednesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.

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Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+115) over Minnesota Twins

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

At this point, I just have to back the Braves’ offense against any right-handed pitcher. The Atlanta lineup has been mashing in  June and have raised their wRC+ to 153 against right-handed pitching. Not only do they rank 1st in wRC+ against righties in June, but also 1st in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and ISO. In summary, their offense is just too good. If there was one guy who I thought could contain the Braves’ offense, it was Joe Ryan. But alas, even Ryan was shelled. He lasted only 3 innings last night and allowed 6 runs and 9 hits. That gives me very little confidence that Kenta Maeda can slow down this red-hot lineup. Maeda has missed most of the season with a right triceps strain that he suffered at the end of April, so the only lineups that Maeda has faced in the last few weeks were in Triple-A and the Detroit Tigers. With the way that the Tigers have been hitting recently, that’s basically the same thing. 

Kolby Allard used to be someone that I looked to fade every time he pitched on the Rangers. This offseason, he found his way back to the team that drafted him. Allard has missed most of the year due to an oblique strain, but he’s made 2 Triple-A starts and has looked pretty good in both. The thing is: I don’t need Allard to be great – just good enough. And he starts with an immediate advantage because he’s a lefty, and that is an Achilles’ heel for the Twins. Since June 1 against left-handed pitchers, Minnesota has a 76 wRC+, a .200 batting average, a .263 on-base percentage and .637 OPS. If Allard does a mediocre job, there’s no reason Atlanta shouldn’t come away with another multi-run victory.

Check out my YRFI/NRFI best bets for today

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates F3 Under 2.5 (-120)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Blake Snell has been looking like the 2018 Cy Young version of himself recently. In his last 36 innings, the lefty has allowed only 2 earned runs – that’s a 0.50 ERA since mid-May. It’s not like Snell has been the benefactor of some good luck either because, in those 36 innings, he is allowing a .139 batting average and a .169 xBA. He also has a 41% strikeout rate and just a 26% hard-hit rate, which are both substantially better than his season averages. I can go on and on about Snell’s improvements from an analytical and eye perspective, but the bottom line is that his control is dramatically better and he’s not the same pitcher he was in April with a 5.30 ERA. On Wednesday, Snell will face a Pirates offense that is also dramatically different from how they were in April. However, it’s not in a good way. Before Tuesday’s game, Pittsburgh had just a 73 wRC+ in June which ranks 29th in baseball. 

I’m a big fan of Mitch Keller at home. Pittsburgh’s ace is 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA and a 0.949 WHIP in 7 starts at PNC Park this season. Opponents are hitting a measly .195 with a .569 OPS, and in the first time seeing Keller, hitters have a .220 average with a 34% strikeout rate. The right-hander will be facing a Padres lineup that has drastically underperformed this season, and it doesn’t seem to be getting any better. When Xander Bogaerts chirps his own team in a press conference, you know that things are bad. Both offenses do the majority of their damage in the middle to later innings, so I’m going to avoid that and just take the first 3 innings under.

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Texas Rangers -1.5 (-110) over Detroit Tigers

Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

If I had to choose a lefty who I fade more often than Patrick Corbin, it would be Joey Wentz. The Detroit starter has been horrific this season with a 6.72 ERA and a 5.47 xERA paired with a 5.46 FIP. He also has just a 63 ERA+, so all signs point to Wentz not having a good season. He’s 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in June and will have to travel to the hitters’ paradise known as Globe Life Field for Wednesday’s start. This will be the southpaw’s first trip to Arlington this season, but it won’t be his first start against the Rangers. At the end of May, Texas knocked Wentz around in Detroit for 7 hits in 4.1 innings but managed to only get 1 run across – an odd occurrence from a powerful lineup. It only gets worse for Wentz too because he’s been worse on the road than at Comerica Park this year. In 6 starts away from home, the lefty is 1-5 with a 7.48 ERA and a .286 opponent batting average.

The Rangers were one of baseball’s best offenses in April and May, and they’ve continued that trend in June. That’s been especially true against lefties as Texas owns a 124 wRC+ against southpaws in June which is the 5th-best mark in that span. Between Marcus Semien at the top of the order, Corey Seager having an MVP-caliber season and the incredible production from the bottom half of their order, the Rangers have formed one of the most balanced and powerful lineups in the league. On the hill for the home team will be Dane Dunning, who is 4-1 with a 3.16 ERA since being moved into the starting rotation. Based on his advanced metrics, he is due for some negative regression, but he continues to run from it. In his last 13 innings against the Blue Jays and Yankees, Dunning has allowed only 4 runs and 11 hits. Until a team really gets to Dunning, I’m going to keep backing him and expect more damage against Wentz from the Texas lineup. 

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