The Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros meet in a best-of-3 AL Wild Card series Tuesday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is set for 2:32 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Astros won 4-2
The Tigers (86-76) won 10 of 13 games to end the regular season — 2 losses came after they had already clinched a Wild Card spot. Detroit’s 3.61 ERA is the 4th-lowest in MLB, but its 4.21 runs per game (RPG) ranks 19th and last among playoff teams.
The Astros (88-73) entered the season with the 3rd-shortest odds to win the World Series at +800, but now have the 5th-shortest odds (+900 at BetMGM Sportsbook) after a somewhat disappointing year. Houston managed to turn its season around after starting 7-19, but its 4.60 RPG (10th in MLB) is a letdown after averaging 5.09 last year, which was 5th in the majors.
Tigers at Astros projected starters
LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Skubal made 31 starts this season, going 18-4 with an AL-best 2.39 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 192 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 home victory over Tampa Bay Rays Sept. 24
- 2024 road stats: 8-3, 2.86 ERA (88 IP, 28 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 in 15 starts
- 2024 vs. Astros: 1-1, 4.26 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 2 starts
- Career vs. Astros: 1-1, 3.16 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 4 starts
Valdez made 28 starts this season, going 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 176 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home victory vs. Seattle Mariners Sept. 24
- 2024 home stats: 9-2, 2.53 ERA (96 IP, 27 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 15 starts
- 2024 vs. Tigers: 1-0, 1 road start (May 10), 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-2 win
- Career vs. Tigers: 2-2, 2.49 ERA (47 IP, 13 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 8 appearances (7 starts)
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Tigers at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Monday at 11:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Tigers at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 3, Astros 2
Moneyline
It’s hard to fade the TIGERS (+125) with Skubal on the mound — especially at plus money. Detroit used a 15-3 run Sept. 7-27 to clinch a Wild Card spot, allowing 3 or fewer runs in 12 of the 18 games.
Skubal ended the regular season as a -5000 favorite (bet $5,000 to win $100) at multiple books to take home the AL Cy Young Award. He’s allowed 2 or fewer ER in 10 of 12 starts since the All-Star break and has won 6 straight decisions over his last 9 starts.
Valdez went 0-3 in 3 playoff starts last year — all at home — giving up a total of 12 ER in 12 IP. While he did go 3-0 over 4 starts when the Astros won the 2022 World Series, his most recent postseason data points are slightly concerning.
Getting the red-hot Tigers at plus money with the AL Cy Young favorite on the mound is worth a play. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch — who was fired by the Astros in 2020 — has a good shot at getting his revenge Tuesday.
BET TIGERS (+125).
Run line/Against the spread
Detroit +1.5 (-200) should hit, but the bid-ask difference is too high.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Tigers are 3-0 to the Under in Skubal’s last 3 starts, and the Under is 1-0-1 in Valdez’s last 2. However, laying -120 without even getting the key number of 7 isn’t recommended. Don’t play this line unless you can get it at -108 or cheaper.
LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-120).
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