NBA

Clippers vs Nuggets Prediction, Picks & NBA Odds

Published

5m ago

Oct 27, 2024 / 4213 Views

Evan Walker

Two Western Conference foes look to break into the win column this afternoon, when the Los Angeles Clippers Travel to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Nuggets, with tip-off set for 5:00 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, and the Game broadcast on NBA TV.

My Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions expect Nikola Jokic to raise Denver's offensive output and carry this score Over the total, highlighting one of my best NBA picks for Saturday's slate.

Clippers vs Nuggets prediction

My best bet
Over 219.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

My analysis

With Paul George now in Philadelphia, the Los Angeles Clippers are a flawed offensive team until Kawhi Leonard returns. Their opening night 116-113 loss to the Suns at home was all the evidence you need: L.A. couldn’t hold a nine-point lead in the fourth, eventually going to overtime, where James Harden missed a second free throw with 4.8 seconds remaining that would have tied it.

Harden was all over the place working as the de facto centerpiece, going for 29 points, 12 boards, and eight assists... but he also shot a dismal 10-for-28 from the field — the Clips shot just 8-for-29 from distance as a team overall — and had eight of the team's 21 turnovers.

The Denver Nuggets had their own shooting woes in a 102-87 blowout loss at home to Oklahoma City in their season opener. The Nuggets are far removed from the team that hoisted the title just two years ago (aside from Nikola Jokic, who had a 16-point, 12-rebound, 13-assist triple-double), when you look at:

Christian Braun is now a starter, trying to fill the shooting and defensive role of the departed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Jamal Murray is still in a hangover from a dismal Olympics, scoring just 12 points on 4-for-13 shooting.
Michael Porter Jr. shot just 5-for-17 from the field.

Denver also only got 16 points from its bench, with Russell Westbrook looking like the liveliest body... in shooting 2-for-10 for six points, hitting just one of six 3-pointers. The Nuggets were a brutal 7-for-38 (18.5%) from 3-point range, a big part of the team shooting 35.7% from the field.

So why are we going with the Over? Well, unlike the Clips, who don’t have their (or "a") superstar, Jokic can lift a team on his own. He should up his shot totals (after just 13 field goal attempts vs. OKC), while his playmaking — to put teammates in position for both clean looks and easy buckets — will be on display today.

Assuming the NBA MVP does his job and the Nuggets get back to a regular scoring output, combining that with the Clips doing much of the same as they did in their opener (all starters in double figures, and 30 points from the bench mob) will push this over the total.

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Clippers vs Nuggets same-game parlay (SGP)

Over 219.5 points

Jokic Over 8.5 assists

Harden Under 24.5 points

+525 at DraftKings

Besides the fact that he dropped 13 dimes with relative ease in the opener... Jokic has historically been Denver’s setup man against the Clippers. He topped his 8.5 assist total in all three regular-season games vs. the Clips and has had 9+ dimes in five straight games against L.A.

Harden took almost double the field goal attempts of the next closest teammate in the opener, and I don’t think that’s the way the Clips want to play this year. Without Kawhi, Los Angeles is a collection of good to nearly great players and everyone needs to eat to succeed.

I anticipate Harden trying to get guys like Terance Mann, who took just six shots against the Suns, involved in the offensive flow. Better games from both Norman Powell (5-for-16) and Kevin Porter Jr (1-for-8) should also bring down his scoring today.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.