The Cleveland Guardians (52-29) and Kansas City Royals (46-39) conclude a 4-game series Saturday. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 3-2
The Guardians picked up a 7-2 victory Saturday as a slight favorite (-114) for their 1st victory in 3 tries in this 4-game set as the Over (7) cashed. Cleveland entered with 3 straight losses, and the Guardians avoided a season-high 4-game losing skid with the win.
The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 5 Games, while going 8-4-1 in the past 13 outings, including the past 2 against the Royals.
The Royals saw their 3-game winning streak come to an end, and the Over has cashed in consecutive games following an 8-0-1 run to the Under. Despite the loss, Kansas City is still 5-2 in the past 7 games at home. The Royals are just 4-5 in the past 9 contests inside the division.
Guardians at Royals projected starters
LHP Logan Allen vs. RHP Seth Lugo
Allen (8-3, 5.72 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 78 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H (3 HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 10-8 road win vs. Baltimore Orioles Tuesday
- 2024 road splits: 5-3, 5.11 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.52 WHIP, .292 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 11 HR, 18 BB, 41 K in 10 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 0-2, 5.27 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.61 WHIP, 3 HR, 7.2 K/9 in 3 starts
Lugo (10-2, 2.29 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 110 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 2-1 home loss vs. Miami Marlins Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 3-2, 2.74 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.18 WHIP, .251 OBA, 5 HR, 11 BB, 37 K in 8 starts
- Career vs. Guardians: 0-0, 5.63 ERA (8 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 in 2 games (1 start)
- 2024 vs. Guardians: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 6 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 6 K in 8-5 road loss June 4
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Guardians at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Royals -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-190) | Royals -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Guardians at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 6, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The ROYALS (-135) are a solid play in the series finale, and it’s actually surprising that they’re not favored by quite a bit more considering the fact they have a 10-win pitcher in Lugo on the bump against a shaky Allen.
Perhaps it’s the win by the Guardians (+110) over the Royals when Lugo started in Cleveland a few weeks ago, although he simply took the no-decision.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more adventurous, ROYALS -1.5 (+155) is a solid play for the chance to multiply up more than 1 1/2 times.
Kansas City has picked up 8 victories just since June 8, and the Royals have won by 2 or more runs in 5 of those outings. So, if you like the Royals, you should also like them to get the job done against the spread.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-105) is the lean, but with the Over cashing in the past 2 games, and Allen being a very giving pitcher for Cleveland, you’ll want to be careful. Go with a half-unit play at most.
The Over has cashed in 2 in a row for the Royals, but the Under is still 8-2-1 in the past 11 outings, and 11-4-1 in the previous 16 contests.
For the Guardians, the Over-Under has split in the past 4 Games, while the Under is 7-4 in the past 11 outings on the road.
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